people and planet

7
FIGURE 7.4:
Universal upper secondary completion by 2030 could lift millions
out of poverty by 2050 in low income countries
Poverty headcount rate in low income countries under four education
expansion scenarios, 2030 and 2050
Poverty headcount rate (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
24
28
0
2020 2030
Source: Barakat et al. (2016).
Trend scenario: education expanding at past trends
Low scenario: universal lower secondary completion by 2030
Slow scenario: universal upper secondary completion by 2040
SDG 4.1 scenario: universal upper secondary completion by 2030
2040 2050
people in poverty. Most of the difference is accounted
for by increases in secondary rather than postsecondary
attainment.
EDUCATION’S EFFECTS ON
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CAN
REDUCE DISASTER-RELATED DEATHS
There are various links between education and climate
change. On the one hand, while the more educated
may be more supportive of institutional reforms and
interventions aimed at climate change mitigation,
educated people tend to have higher incomes and
consume more resources, which is likely to increase
emissions and global warming. Estimating these
relationships using current models is not possible.
2
9
2060
the more educated tend to exhibit greater awareness
of risks, a higher degree of preparation and appropriate
responses, and smaller average losses when disaster
does strike. Although it is argued that natural disasters
strike indiscriminately, disaster risk reduction assumes
that information and preparedness can make a
difference to the survival and livelihoods of individuals
and communities.
Human-induced climate change is likely to increase the
frequency, intensity and severity of extreme climate
events such as heat waves and heavy precipitation, and
cause rising sea levels (IPCC, 2014). Analyses carried
out for the GEM Report examine how different rates of
progress in education affect the numbers of deaths from
extreme climate events and other natural catastrophes,
including storms, floods, droughts and landslides (Lutz
et al., 2014) The model uses past information on the
relationship between education and disaster deaths
(from the Emergency Events Database EM 2010) as
a basis for forecasts of changes in disaster deaths in
coming decades.
The findings show, for example, about 250,000 disasterrelated
deaths over 2000–2010. If trends in education
continue at the current pace (which will reduce disaster
deaths), but the frequency of natural disasters increases
by 20%, the number of disaster-related deaths will remain
at this high level to mid-century and beyond. If, however,
the pace of education expansion quickens, and universal
secondary education is achieved by 2030, then by
2040–2050 there will be 10,000 to 20,000 fewer disasterrelated
deaths per decade at constant disaster frequency,
and 30,000 to 50,000 fewer deaths in a scenario of
increased disaster frequency. Increased secondary
education in Asia would have an especially strong impact
on the predicted global pattern, as the continent is home
to some of the largest populations, many of whom
reside in coastal areas where most disasters occur. In
short, meeting the SDG 4.1 challenge to achieve universal
primary and secondary education could significantly help
countries combat climate change and its impact (SDG 13).
On the other hand, evidence shows that those with
higher education levels are less vulnerable and more
resilient to natural disasters. While comprehensive
data on people’s education levels in disaster-prone
situations are rare, current information suggests that
2016 • GLOBAL EDUCATION MONITORING REPORT 157