people and planet

7
TABLE 7.2:
Projected attainment rates in 2030 and year of achieving universal attainment in the trend scenario, by education level
Primary attainment
rate (%)
(2030)
Projected year of universal
primary attainment
Lower secondary
attainment rate (%)
(2030)
Projected year of
universal lower secondary
attainment
Upper secondary
attainment rate (%)
(2030)
Projected year of
universal upper secondary
attainment
World 91.5 2042 84.4 2059 68.6 2084
Low income 69.6 2088 50.0 2096 29.0 After 2100
Lower middle income 93.2 2054 86.8 2066 71.8 2088
Upper middle income 99.1 2020 96.1 2045 75.2 2087
High income 99.6 Achieved 98.7 2017 94.9 2048
Caucasus and Central Asia 99.8 Achieved 99.4 Achieved 96.4 2044
Eastern and South-eastern Asia 99.3 2015 96.9 2040 76.5 2080
Europe and Northern America 99.7 Achieved 99.5 Achieved 96.8 2044
Latin America and the Caribbean 96.6 2042 90.0 2066 72.7 2095
Northern Africa and Western Asia 92.3 2048 87.0 2062 77.1 2082
Pacific 99.7 Achieved 99.3 2020 96.8 2045
Southern Asia 95.1 2051 89.0 2062 73.5 2087
Sub-Saharan Africa 77.1 2080 62.1 2089 42.4 After 2100
Source: Barakat et al. (2016).
income countries, in this scenario, would only achieve
Target 4.1 at the end of the century. Middle income
countries would meet the target in the late 2080s. Thus,
achieving universal secondary completion requires an
unprecedented and immediate break with past trends
(Figure 7.1).
Among world regions, only Europe and Northern America
and Caucasus and Central Asia have achieved universal
lower secondary completion. They will be very close to
universal upper secondary education in 2030 but are not
expected to reach it. The region of Eastern and Southeastern
Asia is likely to come close to universal lower
secondary completion by 2030, but not achieve universal
upper secondary for at least another 30 years.
The new projections indicate that three regions will not
even achieve universal primary completion by 2030.
Northern Africa and Western Asia is expected to come
very close, as is Southern Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa will
likely lag behind considerably and is expected to have a
completion rate of 77% in primary education, 62% in lower
secondary and 42% in upper secondary (Figure 7.2).
How much progress is required? It is useful to look at
whether a country would achieve universal secondary
“
Universal secondary completion
requires an unprecedented and
immediate break with past trends
”
completion by 2030 if it expanded at the fastest rate ever
observed in its region. For the vast majority of countries,
this would still not be sufficient – even for 1 in 10
countries in Europe and Northern America, and for every
country in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (Table 7.3).
This scenario shows that the speed in education
progress required to meet the SDG target would be
unprecedented. Even disregarding differences in income,
institutions, tradition, governance and policy between
countries, and the fact that what works in one country
may not be successfully replicated elsewhere, analysis
shows the ambition of SDG target 4.1 to be unrealistic.
PREDICTING EFFECTS OF
EDUCATION ON DEVELOPMENT
OUTCOMES
While projections suggest that target 4.1 is not likely to
be met, even modest acceleration of education progress
could make a big difference to other SDGs. However,
there are limitations to understanding the complex
relationships between education and sustainable
development outcomes. In many instances, insufficiencies
of data and research mean some relationships cannot
be analysed. Standardized cross-country information
permits examination only of the effects of educational
attainment. Even then, most studies have looked at
relationships for particular populations, which cannot
necessarily be projected to a global scale.
As this report maintains, while educational attainment
matters for development, so do education quality and
learning outcomes. Yet, widely shared definitions of quality
2016 • GLOBAL EDUCATION MONITORING REPORT 153