II ~I ~ ~II~ ~~ ~II ~ ~II - IFES

IFES Pre-electionAssessment:BurundiPresident Buyoya in 1987. However, the team found little appreciation among the Tutsi thatthese may be the first strides toward the reversal of power and not simply the last small stepstoward power sharing of some kind. Many Hutus, on the other hand, consider it a delusion tohope that the government, which in their eyes has been the instrument of oppression, will bringabout effective change.Tutsis have a solid grip on the civil service, on the military and on the economy. However,if the Hutus can be said to be living under a kind of occupation, the Tutsis are really bestcharacterized as living under a state of seige - they are terrified of the prospect of retribution.The situation in neighboring Rwanda and Uganda, where Tutsis roam as powerless minoritiesand refugees, only compounds their fear. Burundi's Tutsis have no intention of joining thispersecuted flock, often referred to as the Palestinians of Africa.At the same time, Burundi's Tutsis no longer seem willing to react to every externalprovocation. Despite the violence against Tutsis by the ruling Hutus in Rwanda, Buyoya'sdemocratization and reconciliation campaign has succeeded in instilling a new sense ofnationalism among Burundians of all stripes, and there are few Tutsis in the government ormilitary willing to engage in the kind of anti-Hutu purges which characterized the First andSecond Republics.Buyoya has also initiated a very credible, and admittedly incomplete, process of channelingpopular demands along non-ethnic-determined paths and developing new routines for conflictavoidance. Cabinet appointments, civil service and military recruitment, and regionalallocations all point to a society in change. The government's "affirmative action" program isespecially visible: the Prime Minister is well-respected Hutu; for the first time a Hutu wasmade the President of the (until recently governing) UPRONA party; and Hutus now hold aslight majority of cabinet positions.These steps may not mean much to some Hutus who feel constrained by the constitutional lawoutlawing political activity organized on an ethnic basis. While the law might at first glanceappear to be a defensive hold on Tutsi power, it might more sympathetically be viewed as a•practical recognition of the danger of ethnicity-mongering by those, on the left as well as the16