II ~I ~ ~II~ ~~ ~II ~ ~II - IFES

IFES Pre-electionAssessment: Burundiright, who seek only power. The test of the government's commitment to democratization willcome when political parties comprised mostly of Hutus (yet not defined as Hutu parties) applyfor legal status.The government is in a difficult position. If it moves even more quickly and boldly than it hasdone to liberalize the political system it will have to convince the Tutsi minority that democracyfor them will not be a zero-sum game - indeed, that democracy will not mean suicide. Unlessthe Tutsi are convinced as such, the nation will likely continue to experience a series of coupsand counter coups. If, on the other hand, the government moves too slowly, it risks bolsteringaccusations of power-hoarding made by those who seek to rekindle the ethnic flame. Thegovernment is afraid, and it is moving cautiously.How successful will the government be in sewing up ethnic differences? Based on the team'sobservations and on conversations with individuals and groups from all strata of Burundisociety, the task will not be an easy one. On one level, there has been a sea change in ethnicrelations. For one thing, few people fear the return of the kind of bloodletting that went on inthe past. One significant indication of confidence is that Hutu parents have started toenthusiastically advance their children through secondary school. The university is about onequarterHutu and still growing.Nevertheless, Hutus remain suspicious that Tutsis will continue to try to dominate their lives.For example, the overwhelming number of Hutus outside the government with whom the teamspoke expressed strong apprehensions about the government's willingness to dilute Tutsidominance of the civil service and especially the military. Specifically, there is still someconcern about former President Bagaza's appointments in the civil service.· Prominent Hutusbelieve that perhaps 30 percent of the civil service is staffed with Bagaza people and that theymake decisions and allocate resources based on ethnic affiliation. (See the section on The Roleof the Military in Chapter IV.)As for the new constitution, there is little confidence among Hutu intellectuals that it willchannel social conflict along pre-determined paths, giving a sense of regularity andpredictability to the routines and rules of the political system. Many Hutus are offended that17