II ~I ~ ~II~ ~~ ~II ~ ~II - IFES

IFES Pre-eJectionAssessment: Burundidemocratization, marginalizing ethnic exclusionists on both the left and the right, that it wouldbe very difficult to sustain a coup should one take place. The failure of the March 4 attemptedputch (coup d'etat) to attract much support bears this out.•There are also signs that the military as an institution may be changing. The army did not firea shot during the March, 1992 attacks on military barracks in Cibitoke by self-describedPalipehutu rebels. Members of government with whom the team spoke were convinced that themilitary has been transformed into a professional force whose duty is to serve the nation'sexecutive (the Constitution prohibits military men from holding office) and protect thedemocratization process from sabotage from the left and the right. Our hosts could notreiterate often enough that pogroms and anti-democratic coups are terribly out of date.The military may well realize that another massacre or a coup would not be accepted by theinternational community. However, the ethnic composition of the officer corps (98 percent areTutsi) means that it remains a potential threat to democracy (Hutus are still intimidated by thearmy and the government's sincere efforts to integrate this group have not been successful).Tutsis have historically considered themselves warriors. Officers have been relatively wellpaid. If they perceive that democracy will mean their professional, and perhaps physical,extinction they will very likely put an end to it.Fortunately, there is a healthy recognition among FRODEBU (Front pour Ie Democralie auBururuli) and other opposition political parties that the military cannot be thrown out or changedover night: So far, the military seems to have accepted the transition process. Nevertheless,there are elements on the left who, in an open campaign environment, will call for what willbe perceived on the right as retribution. How effective the more moderate forces are atcontaining both groups may well determine Burundi's future.PalipehutuThe IFES Team was informed that senior Catholic and Protestant Bishops met with Palipehutuleaders at the end of March, apparently with the President's approval. A joint press release22