La monnaie unique europeenne et sa relation au ... - Eumed.net

Mais la modélisation logistique est bonne :
Dependent Variable: DET
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/12/06 Time: 00:16
Sample: 1880 1914
Included observations: 35
Convergence achieved after 1 iteration
DET=60/(1+EXP(C(1)+C(2)*@TREND))
LLaa moonnnnaai iiee uunni iiqquuee eeuur rooppééeennnnee. ..
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C(1) -1.913866 0.102454 -18.68031 0.0000
C(2) 0.053394 0.004423 12.07184 0.0000
R-squared 0.850864 Mean dependent var 43.31429
Adjusted R-squared 0.846345 S.D. dependent var 7.136367
S.E. of regression 2.797372 Akaike info criterion 4.950683
Sum squared resid 258.2347 Schwarz criterion 5.039560
Log likelihood -84.63696 Durbin-Watson stat 0.532505
10
5
0
-5
1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910
Residual Actual Fitted
Belgique Hollande France Moyenne 1 e r
cercle (Fce +
Bénélux)
1880 32 96 80
1881 33 96 80,25
1882 35 90 76,25
1883 38 97 82,25
1884 39 82 106 87,8
1885 40 88 111 92,2
1886 47 100 112 96,6
1887 45 98 114 97
1888 42 99 113 96
1889 42 92 109 92,2
1890 41 93 102 88
1891 44 93 102 88,6
TToomee IIVV I
70
60
50
40
30
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11778800