Maclean et al. - 2002 - Rice almanac source book for the most important e

kg/year
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Philippines
Korea, Rep. of
Indonesia
Malaysia
Japan
Thailand
50
1961-631967-69 1973-75 1979-811985-87 1991-931997-98
Year
Fig. 2. Trend in per capita cereal consumption,
selected Asian countries, 1961-98.
of the people live in poverty and do not have adequate
income to acquire the food needed for a
healthy, productive life.
However, the major force behind the future
increase in demand for rice is going to be the
increase in population. The Asian population is
expected to increase by 35% over the next
quarter century (Table 2). In the low-income
countries where per capita consumption is expected
to continue to grow, the population is also
projected to increase by more than 30%.
The demand for marketed surplus will
increase faster because of rapidly expanding urban
societies that will generally increase the demand
for high-cost and convenience foods. The
question is whether there is enough unexploited
production capacity within the existing technology
and enough incentives for the producers
within the existing input-output price differential
to achieve the required increase in rice production
and marketed surplus of rice.
Emerging trends in supply
The experience of the last three decades created
a sense of complacency regarding Asia’s ability
to meet the growing demand for rice. Recent
trends in the growth in rice prod-uction raise
serious concern regarding the sustainability of
past achievements. Since the mid-1980s, rice
production has increased at only 1.7% per year
versus 3.2% during 1975-85 and 2.9% in the
decade earlier. Rice production has failed to
outpace population growth in many countries
(Table 3). Several factors combine to indicate
that this is the beginning of a long-term trend
rather than a cyclical downswing.
Constraints to further growth in
rice production
Technology progress running out of
steam
The Green Revolution that began in the mid-
1960s has been successful mostly in the irrigated
ecosystem where yield increased from 3.0 to 5.8
t/ha over the last three decades (Fig. 3). Almost
all this land has already been covered with mod-
Table 2. Projections of population growth in major rice-producing and -consuming countries in Asia, 1995 to 2025.
Projected
Country Population Annual growth rate population Percent
2000 (% per year) in 2025 increase
(million)
1995-2000 2020-25
(million) 2000-25
China 1,277.6 0.9 0.5 1,480.4 16
India 1,013.7 1.6 0.9 1,330.4 31
Indonesia 212.1 1.4 0.8 273.4 29
Bangladesh 129.2 1.7 1.0 178.8 38
Vietnam 79.8 1.6 1.1 108.0 35
Thailand 61.4 0.9 0.5 72.7 18
Myanmar 45.6 1.2 0.8 58.1 27
Japan 126.7 0.2 –0.5 121.2 –4
Philippines 76.0 2.1 1.1 108.3 42
Korea, Rep. of 46.9 0.8 0.3 52.5 12
Pakistan 156.5 2.8 1.5 263.0 68
Asia (excl. China) 2,045.0 1.7 1.0 3,242.7 35
Source: United Nations, 1999. World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.
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