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eastern, and south-central areas, which make up
only 44% of the nation’s land area. The remaining
one-fourth of the population is dispersed in the
southwestern and northwestern parts. Because of
an active family planning program, including
some restrictions on family size, annual
population growth slowed from 2.6% per annum
in the late 1960s to just 0.9% per annum in the
late 1990s.
Recent developments in the rice sector
Rice is the staple food of China and accounts for
about 35% of total grain production, which was
345 million t in 2000 (converting paddy to its
milled rice equivalent). However, wheat is more
important in some areas, especially in the North.
Although rice is still a large part of people’s diets,
its importance has declined considerably in the
past 15 years. Since 1985, the share of total
calories obtained from rice has fallen from 38%
to 30%. During this same period, the share of
total calories coming from wheat has declined
only slightly, from about 22% to 19%. In terms of
protein, rice and wheat each accounted for
slightly more than one-fourth of total protein
intake in the late 1980s, but during the 1990s this
share declined sharply, and it now stands at
slightly less than one-fifth for each cereal.
China is the world’s largest rice producer,
accounting for 32–35% of total world production
(India has a larger rice area harvested, but lower
per hectare yields). Except for Japan and the
Republic of Korea, rice yields in China are the
highest in Asia, due in part to favorable growing
conditions. Rice area harvested has declined from
its peak of 37 million hectares in the mid-1970s
to just over 30 million ha today. The decline in
area has been due to both economic reforms that
reduced government requirements to grow rice
and economic development that increased the
opportunity cost of land. In recent years, much of
the fall in rice area has occurred in coastal
provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang.
Hunan is the largest rice producing province, and
most rice production is in the Yangtze River
Valley (or further south) where ample supplies of
water are available. However, rice production in
northern China has increased substantially in
recent years, with its share of national production
nearly doubling from 7.6% in 1989 to 13.3% in
1999. Much of this increase has come in
Heilongjiang and the other two northeastern
provinces of Jilin and Liaoning, but production
has also expanded noticeably in Henan and
Shandong.
China regularly imports and exports rice each
year. Imports exceeded exports in 1995 and 1996,
but China has been a net exporter since then. In
1998 and 1999, it was the world’s fourth largest
rice exporter (in gross terms, not net), and its
exports helped to stabilize world market rice
prices in the face of a strong El Niño that severely
disrupted production in Indonesia and the
Philippines.
Rice environments
More than 90% of the rice area in China is
irrigated, with only relatively small areas being
cultivated under rainfed conditions. However,
rice-growing conditions vary because of
topography and weather. In southeastern China,
high temperature and adequate rainfall make an
ideal environment for rice during a long growth
period, and many areas grow two crops of rice per
year. In the Yangtze River Valley, much of the
land is planted to a rice-wheat rotation. In
northeastern China, low temperature, a short
growth period, little rainfall, and lack of water
limit the rice area. The varieties grown in this
area are typically japonica and are considered to
be of higher quality than rice grown in other
areas. There are some scattered rice areas in arid
and semiarid regions of northwestern China.
Production constraints
Total area harvested to all crops continues to
increase in China. Area harvested to rice has
declined during the past 25 years, however,
because of crop diversification. (Rice formerly
accounted for 26% of all crop area harvested in
the mid-1970s, but more recently the share is just
20%.) At the same time, population continues to
grow by about 13 million people per year. Until
per capita rice consumption begins to decline
because of rising wealth accompanied by dietary
diversification (as has happened in Japan, the
Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand), rice
yields will need to increase to meet consumption
demand without resort to imports.
Water shortages in the north are another
important production constraint. Although
northern China has only 24% of the nation’s
water resources, it contains more than 65% of
China’s cultivated land. While water shortages
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