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Table 3. Population growth versus rice production in selected countries, 1965-2000.
Growth in
Rice harvested Population growth rice production
Country area in 2000 (%/year) (%/year)
(000 ha)
1965-85 1985-2000 1965-85 1985-2000
India 44,600 2.2 1.9 2.9 2.6
China 30,508 1.9 1.2 3.3 1.0
Indonesia 11,523 2.3 1.6 5.3 1.8
Bangladesh 10,470 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.7
Thailand 10,000 2.6 1.2 2.7 1.5
Vietnam 7,650 2.3 1.9 2.7 5.2
Myanmar 6,000 2.2 1.2 3.9 2.7
Philippines 3,900 2.8 2.2 3.8 1.8
Japan 1,800 1.0 0.3 –1.4 –1.1
Korea, Rep. of 1,059 1.8 0.9 2.6 –1.0
Malaysia 674 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.0
World 153,458 1.9 1.5 2.9 1.3
Source: FAO, FAOSTAT database, Dec. 2000.
Yield (t/ha)
6
Irrigated (40%)
Largely irrigated (30%)
5 Rainfed (30%)
4
3
2
1
0
1967 1970 19731976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Year
Ecosystem
Average yield (t/ha)
Growth rate (%/yr)
1967-69 1984-86 1995-97 1967-85 1985-97
Irrigated 3.2 5.0 5.7 2.7 (0.2) 1.3 (0.1)
Largely irrigated 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.2 (0.2) 2.7 (0.2)
Rainfed 1.5 1.8 2.1 0.9 (0.3) 1.8 (0.3)
Note: The numbers within parentheses are the standard error of the
estimated growth rate. Source: IRRI World Rice Statistics and FAOSTAT
database, 2000.
Fig. 3. Trend in rice yield under different growth
conditions, 1967-97. Table gives comparative rates
in selected periods.
ern varieties and the best farmers’ yields are already
approaching the potential that scientists are
able to attain with today’s knowledge in that environment.
With intensive monoculture of rice in
the irrigated systems using high doses of indus-
trial chemicals, the natural resources are under
stress, and scientists find it difficult to sustain the
high yields. In Japan and the Republic of Korea,
rice yield has remained stagnant at around 6.0 to
6.5 t/ha after reaching that level in the late 1960s
and mid-1970s, respectively. In the humid
tropics, the maximum achievable yield on farms
is less than 6.0 t/ha because of increased pest
pressure, frequent cloudy days with below-optimal
sunshine, and susceptibility of the crop to
floods, droughts, and strong winds. In regions
with good irrigation infrastructure, this potential
yield “ceiling” is about to be reached.
Some technologies are being developed that
may help raise land productivity and input-use
efficiency in the irrigated ecosystem, and thereby
contribute to a further increase in rice supplies.
In 1989, IRRI began to design a new rice plant,
one that would make it possible to grow an irrigated
rice crop with up to 30% higher yield. It is
designed to increase nutrient efficiency with
fewer, larger panicles per plant, to reduce unproductive
tillers, and to increase photosynthesis
efficiency through erect and thick leaves. Field
evaluations of the breeding lines have been going
on for some time with new problems, such as
poor grain filling and high incidence of stem
borer, being detected. The new plant architecture
also needs to be matched with agronomic practices:
planting method, nitrogen application, and
weed control. It may take a few more years
before this technology reaches farmers.
Another available technology is hybrid rice
64 Rice almanac