Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

demonstrated by the “Persepolis scandal” following the airing of the film Persepolis on
Tunisian television. Many Islamist groups were appalled that a film that portrays God
blasphemously, which is considered to be a sin in Islam, could be shown in Tunisia.
Many secular groups were then equally appalled at the judicial proceedings that were
initiated against the head of the television station which aired the film. This tension and
debate may also spill-over into the discussion of women’s rights and universal values.
Despite Ennahdha’s repeated assurances that the Personal Status Code will not be
touched, there are secular women’s groups and groups of intellectuals who remain scared
of potential back-sliding. While it seems unlikely that Ennahdha or any other party would
wish to engage in such a costly and destabilizing move, women’s groups will remain alert
to the possibility of the inclusion of any loopholes connected with rights issues that could
be exploited at a later stage.
The decision about what ‘style’ of government to adopt, while less publicly
divisive, also has the ability to test the young coalition’s ability to manage a plurality of
opinions. In their election manifesto, Ennahdha favors a single-chamber parliamentary
system with a president elected by parliament, whereas the CPR, one of their coalition
partners, favors a clear separation of powers, a high level of decentralization and a
universal declaration of human rights. There is also a diversity of opinion in the
opposition parties such as Progressive Democratic Party (PDP)’s preference for an
American-style presidential system. As was noted in the theoretical debate, there is little
consensus on which of these institutional styles is best able to mitigate future conflict, but
as Horowitz pointed out, coherence does appear to matter. The plurality of opinions on
this topic and the requisite negotiations may make this coherence harder to achieve.
Potential Challenges and Spoilers
In addition to the challenge to its legitimacy in its conception and tackling the issues
outlined above, the NCA will face many other challenges in its attempt to create a new
order in Tunisia. The most prominent of these is likely to be the tension between making
sufficient progress on a coherent constitution to hold elections as scheduled in November,
while a desperate and alert population increases their demands for progress on the ‘real’
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