Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

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What the U.S. has Promised Tunisia The U.S. State Department’s Conflict Stabilization office has provided and promised to continue providing various forms of technical training to a broad range of service sectors in the country. Technical training is a low cost method to improve the efficiency of the country as a whole. In addition to the longstanding military exchanges to train Tunisian military at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, which strengthen the alliance between the two countries, the U.S. has also begun training programs with the police and justice departments to ensure that the rule of law prevail in the country. This will help to develop institutions that will attract investment. Government departments in the U.S., such as Commerce and Agriculture, have worked with industries in Tunisia to develop their export capabilities. This will prove to be mutually beneficial as Tunisia acquires the ability to compete competitively on the global market and the U.S. is able to purchase Tunisian goods at a desirable price. U.S. Ambassador-Gordon Gray, has indicated that his staff is working with U.S. investors to improve their perception of the risks in investing in the Tunisian economy. The Embassy is also facilitating discussions for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two countries. Embassy personnel are working with U.S. policymakers to showcase the stability and mutual benefits to investment in Tunisia. However, Ambassador Gray stated that any aspirations for a type of Marshall Plan to be implemented in Tunisia will not be forthcoming. Domestic and international pressures have compelled the U.S. to allocate proportionately more monetary assistance to other volatile areas (SAIS Group Meeting, 27 January 2012). Assistance through subsidized loans and grants to Tunisia will be limited by concerns by U.S. policymakers that it will encourage dependency on foreign aid. To alleviate this, the U.S. has been able to specialize its assistance by sector and region to provide sufficient funds for sustainable independent growth. Organizations such as the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) and the USAID Office of Transition Initiative (OTI) are helping to put money into development projects in the near term. Their assistance to the greater Middle East region compels intended recipients to establish competitive plans for development in 202
order to receive these funds over other potential recipients. To be competitive, these recipients will need to take action and provide assurance that foreign assistance will not create dependencies. Reception of U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Large portions of the educated youth in Tunisia, of which 23% are unemployed, have expressed resounding support for U.S. assistance (The Economist, 16 July-22 July 2011, 52). This sector of the population has been soliciting U.S. assistance programs such as the MCC and MEPI to secure a favorable proportion of the $2.6 million grants that have been proposed for 2012 38 . This assistance is not only perceived as providing employment to the highly active portion of the population, but also as focused on establishing sustainable development. The tourism sector that saw high losses in customers following the revolution has also been graciously accepting U.S. assistance to regain Tunisia’s image as a desirable vacation destination. Ms. Arfaoui also commented that Tunisians understand that in order to ensure the sustainability of the new democracy, foreigners with expertise in democracy will be instrumental (SAIS Group Meeting, 23 January 2012). The initial sessions of the Constituent Assembly shown on television highlighted the fact that the assembly is still working to build public consensus on key issues including shari’a law. However, in contrast to the transition currently taking place in Egypt, the Tunisian transition is proving to be far more successful. Tunisia’s more peaceful protests of the current Constituent Assembly demonstrate the fruits of a successful democratic transition and not security oppression. Tunisians do believe that their democratic transition has the potential to be implemented even more efficiently and in a timelier manner than what is currently taking place. It is this belief that is contributing to Tunisian’s desire to look to the U.S. for assistance in the future regarding the drafting of the constitution. Tunisians in general are willing to accept assistance from foreign experts in the creation of their democratic institutions, because it will enable their system to reach its desired optimal potential. 38 Taylor, Bill. U.S. Embassy-Tunis Public Affairs Section. Personal interview. 27 January 2012. 203
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Johns Hopkins University School for
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Acknowledgements We are most gratef
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List of Acronyms AKP Adalet ve Kalk
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xii
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proposed goal (as in the previous e
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democracy is a continual testing pr
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What’s in a Revolution? The timin
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limited to Tunisia, these vivid dep
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political system before any of the
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discontent of so many in Tunisia wh
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eality,” signified by Tunisian pe
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mantra sparked the Kasbah sit-ins r
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in early January of 2011, you would
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independence from the Ottoman Empir
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ack to the 1970s (SAIS Group Meetin
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Two Tunisias: How A Revolution Whic
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continued to cite statistics claimi
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inequality were most severe. Combat
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in government could drop precipitou
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for bold political leadership in Tu
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History of Secularism in Tunisia In
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1) Freedom to form and to join orga
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Source: Stepan, Alfred C. “Religi
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terms of campaigning, the political
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that in practice many people who es
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Short-term • Secular parties must
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Islamism and Laïcité in the Tunis
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girl, a high-achieving student at h
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laws are either supported directly
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and she argues that he, like many s
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during exams, preventing other stud
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Constituent Assembly should keep th
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Women’s Rights in Tunisia: A “N
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dismiss the question as a non-issue
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In immediate post-revolutionary Tun
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Others express concern about the va
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something every Tunisian boy does n
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Mr. Ghannouchi is equally surprised
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Mr. Hedri showed concern over the l
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has occurred in response to politic
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The Post-Transition Constitutional
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Theoretical Literature While there
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Tunisian Case Following Ben Ali’s
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parties. With the internal arrangem
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issues of unemployment, reduced cor
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Recommendations • NCA and politic
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Political Party Development Amy Ham
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experience and expertise, will be k
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with Laryssa Chomiak, SAIS group me
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epresented a complete departure fro
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To some extent, the focus on the qu
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• Enhance the legitimacy and enfo
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Ennahdha and the Salafis Roberta Lu
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The trial against Nabil Karoui, the
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Some Possible Explanations The hesi
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the salafist movement Al-Salafiya A
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violence, to lay the bases for a ne
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Tunisian Civil Society Before and A
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Bourguiba,” Bellin points out,
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nip in the bud any challenges to pa
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“training-of-trainers” (ToT) ev
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The focus of civil society groups i
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economic development in Tunisia. Th
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The Tunisian Youth Fallout: A Look
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that they found voting to be the mo
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head (Dégage, 2011). It should the
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graduates are unemployed (SAIS Grou
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to participate as a citizen in a de
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are rumored to consist only of 3,00
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Medium-term • At some point, the
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Part III: Security, Justice and Eco
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The Role of the Military in Post-Be
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insufficient to prevent the demonst
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disruptions during voting, the tota
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This is in sharp contrast to the mi
Page 163 and 164: Recommendations While the military
Page 165 and 166: Internal Security and Reform in Tun
Page 167 and 168: The Implements of Repression There
Page 169 and 170: undesirable organizations, stifle d
Page 171 and 172: evolution, many police, especially
Page 173 and 174: A Way Forward: Policy Reforms At pr
Page 175 and 176: Transitional Justice and National R
Page 177 and 178: Those released therefore included p
Page 179 and 180: The current situation in many ways
Page 181 and 182: circulating that the informal strik
Page 183 and 184: the commercial interests of the ban
Page 185 and 186: and clear limits to police behavior
Page 187 and 188: Addressing Unemployment Rebekah Cha
Page 189 and 190: The forecasting is based on the ass
Page 191 and 192: of its revolution. This has had a c
Page 193 and 194: Boosting the Tourism Sector The tou
Page 195 and 196: absorb all of the university gradua
Page 197 and 198: language and technology skills, whi
Page 199 and 200: Understanding Unemployment in Tunis
Page 201 and 202: ather than shifts from low to high
Page 203 and 204: Figure 2: Unemployment by age and e
Page 205 and 206: the Tunisian economy. Thus, creatin
Page 207 and 208: • Encourage entrepreneurship: Tra
Page 209 and 210: U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Cody Die
Page 211 and 212: cultural differences that may inhib
Page 213: the Constitutional Assembly in Tuni
Page 217 and 218: and access to jobs in Libya for Tun
Page 219 and 220: Conclusion P. Terrence Hopmann The
Page 221 and 222: the domination of the salafis and o
Page 223 and 224: well educated, but under or unemplo
Page 225 and 226: persons, a huge contingent for such
Page 227 and 228: List of Interviewees Washington DC,
Page 229 and 230: • Salah Bourjini, former division
Page 231 and 232: • Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of the
Page 233 and 234: Bibliography Abouzeid, Rania. 21 Ja
Page 235 and 236: Cook, Steven A. 20 January 2011.
Page 237 and 238: Le Monde. 25 January 2011. “Tunis
Page 239 and 240: Silver, Vernon. 12 December 2011.
Page 241: World Bank. 2004. “Dynamique de L
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