Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

managing to retain power, is one that the Tunisian population is very conscious of. These
political parties have almost universally been extremely unsuccessful. Voting in the
recent elections for the Constituent Assembly has been widely described by
commentators seeking to explain Ennahdha’s victory as an expression of identity by the
Tunisian people—an expression that they are Arab Muslims first. However, a case might
also be made that Ennahdha represented as far from the former regime as possible, as
well as being a organization large enough to credibly resist the influence of former RCD
members.
Of course, the opposing view might be offered as well—that by some estimated
25% of RCD members were Islamists and may well have voted for Ennahdha, while
many others were unwilling to be seen voting for the parties of former RCD members in
the recent elections, and therefore stayed home out of confusion. This might prove
significant in terms of political electioneering for the next general elections to be held in
late 2012.
Another vital consideration is the effect of the top-down political reform approach
that Tunisia has chosen. While elections have been held to determine the state level
government, municipal elections are scheduled to be held in April 2012. The individuals
currently holding those offices, therefore, date to before the revolution, and an
overwhelming majority of them either belonged to or were identified with the RCD. For
many people, the corruption of the regime was not represented so much in the person of
the Interior Minister or the President’s extended family, but rather in the quality of
service they received on a local level—the local RCD party chief in a district represents
the party to them. This has implications in that it implies that a top down purge is also
likely to be unsatisfactory, while at the same time, it is unlikely that many local level
officials had the influence or power to be involved in the kind of serious and large scale
corruption for which legal recourse might be considered.
While the public demand may have been for a complete break with the RCD, it
appears that intellectual opinion inside Tunisia is split. There are many who are arguing
that all the skill and experience of keeping the state functioning is held within the RCD
and that they form a powerful organized group with great disruptive powers. Rumors are
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