Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

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As Tunisia led the movement, its democratic success will take on symbolic value for other countries in the region. Additionally, China is one of Tunisia’s most active new trading partners. Between 2000 and 2009, trade increased tenfold with China. Thus China also has an interest in the country’s stability and could be called upon accordingly to provide foreign assistance. Given China’s preference for funding infrastructure projects, the Tunisian government could negotiate to have China provide the resources to complete several major tourist infrastructure projects that were put on hold due to the global financial crisis. Additionally, the government has failed to develop and implement a detailed, comprehensive strategy for reducing unemployment. This can be attributed to the lack of experience of the current government officials, the majority of which did not serve under the Ben Ali regime. While the Ennahdha party has outlined important goals for reducing unemployment in its 365 point program, it has yet to develop a comprehensive strategy for achieving these goals. Instead, the government has been implementing ad hoc measures that have failed to produce concrete results. In order to be more effective, the government should tie its efforts to reduce unemployment to a more developed strategy. Long-Term Issues As seen in Figure 1 above, the youth unemployment rate will naturally fall to a manageable rate by the end of the decade if the GDP growth rate is sustained at 4 to 5%. Therefore, in the long term, encouraging economic growth and addressing several structural unemployment issues should be a sufficient strategy for addressing unemployment. In order to encourage economic growth, the government faces the longterm challenges of strengthening the private sector and encouraging foreign direct investment. Additionally, the government must develop certain sectors, including telecommunications and tourism, which are job-intensive and employ high-skill laborers. A last long-term issue is the education system, which is currently failing to adequately prepare university graduates to enter the workforce. Addressing these issues, which will be discussed further below, will generally boost economic growth and address structural unemployment issues. 180
Boosting the Tourism Sector The tourism sector contracted sharply due to the recent revolution and it has not yet recovered due to the continued instability in the country. According to the Tourism Ministry, Tunisia’s tourism revenue declined by 39% in 2011 (Carey and Salama, 2011, 2). Though the tourism sector only accounts for 6% of the economy, it makes up 12% of Tunisia’s total employment and 20% of Tunisia’s exports. Thus, in terms of employment, rebuilding the tourism sector will have a major impact. The most urgent barrier to rebuilding the tourism sector is the instability in the country, which has discouraged tourists from vacationing in Tunisia. When the government takes stronger measures to ensure that internal security issues are under control, there will be an accompanying rise in tourism. The other major issue is the government’s failure to take action on its proposals to develop the tourism sector. These proposals include enhancing tourist attractions in the interior regions of the country, focusing more on ecological, cultural and spa tourism, and improving visa processes. The tourism market in Tunisia has a great deal of room for growth, and such growth will help to ease Tunisia’s unemployment levels. Growth of the Private Sector and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Ben Ali regime, corruption was a major hindrance to the growth of the private sector and foreign direct investment. Investors, both domestic and foreign, were deterred by the predatory practices of the Ben Ali and Trabelsi families. Anecdotes abound of their practices, which often involved seizing or demanding cuts from profitable businesses. While this is currently less of a concern following the revolution, the interim government continues to face ongoing issues of corruption and clientelism. Currently, the greatest deterrence to domestic and foreign investment is the instability in the country. However, once the government gets the security situation under control, the next issues to be addressed are corruption and clientelism. The government can also address challenges such as poor access to credit, heavy “red tape,” and a burdensome regulatory framework. 181
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Johns Hopkins University School for
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Acknowledgements We are most gratef
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List of Acronyms AKP Adalet ve Kalk
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xii
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proposed goal (as in the previous e
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democracy is a continual testing pr
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What’s in a Revolution? The timin
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limited to Tunisia, these vivid dep
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political system before any of the
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discontent of so many in Tunisia wh
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eality,” signified by Tunisian pe
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mantra sparked the Kasbah sit-ins r
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in early January of 2011, you would
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independence from the Ottoman Empir
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ack to the 1970s (SAIS Group Meetin
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Two Tunisias: How A Revolution Whic
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continued to cite statistics claimi
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inequality were most severe. Combat
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in government could drop precipitou
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for bold political leadership in Tu
Page 50 and 51:
History of Secularism in Tunisia In
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1) Freedom to form and to join orga
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Source: Stepan, Alfred C. “Religi
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terms of campaigning, the political
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that in practice many people who es
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Short-term • Secular parties must
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Islamism and Laïcité in the Tunis
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girl, a high-achieving student at h
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laws are either supported directly
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and she argues that he, like many s
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during exams, preventing other stud
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Constituent Assembly should keep th
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Women’s Rights in Tunisia: A “N
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dismiss the question as a non-issue
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In immediate post-revolutionary Tun
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Others express concern about the va
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something every Tunisian boy does n
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Mr. Ghannouchi is equally surprised
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Mr. Hedri showed concern over the l
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has occurred in response to politic
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The Post-Transition Constitutional
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Theoretical Literature While there
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Tunisian Case Following Ben Ali’s
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parties. With the internal arrangem
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issues of unemployment, reduced cor
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Recommendations • NCA and politic
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Political Party Development Amy Ham
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experience and expertise, will be k
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with Laryssa Chomiak, SAIS group me
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epresented a complete departure fro
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To some extent, the focus on the qu
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• Enhance the legitimacy and enfo
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Ennahdha and the Salafis Roberta Lu
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The trial against Nabil Karoui, the
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Some Possible Explanations The hesi
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the salafist movement Al-Salafiya A
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violence, to lay the bases for a ne
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Tunisian Civil Society Before and A
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Bourguiba,” Bellin points out,
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nip in the bud any challenges to pa
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“training-of-trainers” (ToT) ev
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The focus of civil society groups i
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economic development in Tunisia. Th
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The Tunisian Youth Fallout: A Look
Page 141 and 142: that they found voting to be the mo
Page 143 and 144: head (Dégage, 2011). It should the
Page 145 and 146: graduates are unemployed (SAIS Grou
Page 147 and 148: to participate as a citizen in a de
Page 149 and 150: are rumored to consist only of 3,00
Page 151 and 152: Medium-term • At some point, the
Page 153 and 154: Part III: Security, Justice and Eco
Page 155 and 156: The Role of the Military in Post-Be
Page 157 and 158: insufficient to prevent the demonst
Page 159 and 160: disruptions during voting, the tota
Page 161 and 162: This is in sharp contrast to the mi
Page 163 and 164: Recommendations While the military
Page 165 and 166: Internal Security and Reform in Tun
Page 167 and 168: The Implements of Repression There
Page 169 and 170: undesirable organizations, stifle d
Page 171 and 172: evolution, many police, especially
Page 173 and 174: A Way Forward: Policy Reforms At pr
Page 175 and 176: Transitional Justice and National R
Page 177 and 178: Those released therefore included p
Page 179 and 180: The current situation in many ways
Page 181 and 182: circulating that the informal strik
Page 183 and 184: the commercial interests of the ban
Page 185 and 186: and clear limits to police behavior
Page 187 and 188: Addressing Unemployment Rebekah Cha
Page 189 and 190: The forecasting is based on the ass
Page 191: of its revolution. This has had a c
Page 195 and 196: absorb all of the university gradua
Page 197 and 198: language and technology skills, whi
Page 199 and 200: Understanding Unemployment in Tunis
Page 201 and 202: ather than shifts from low to high
Page 203 and 204: Figure 2: Unemployment by age and e
Page 205 and 206: the Tunisian economy. Thus, creatin
Page 207 and 208: • Encourage entrepreneurship: Tra
Page 209 and 210: U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Cody Die
Page 211 and 212: cultural differences that may inhib
Page 213 and 214: the Constitutional Assembly in Tuni
Page 215 and 216: order to receive these funds over o
Page 217 and 218: and access to jobs in Libya for Tun
Page 219 and 220: Conclusion P. Terrence Hopmann The
Page 221 and 222: the domination of the salafis and o
Page 223 and 224: well educated, but under or unemplo
Page 225 and 226: persons, a huge contingent for such
Page 227 and 228: List of Interviewees Washington DC,
Page 229 and 230: • Salah Bourjini, former division
Page 231 and 232: • Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of the
Page 233 and 234: Bibliography Abouzeid, Rania. 21 Ja
Page 235 and 236: Cook, Steven A. 20 January 2011.
Page 237 and 238: Le Monde. 25 January 2011. “Tunis
Page 239 and 240: Silver, Vernon. 12 December 2011.
Page 241: World Bank. 2004. “Dynamique de L
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