Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

The forecasting is based on the assumption that the GDP growth rate will be sustained at
4.5% from 2012 on. It is also driven by the trend of a declining birth rate, which
translates into a youth labor force whose growth rate is slowing. Given these phenomena,
the youth unemployment rate is predicted to decline drastically in the next decade. The
long-term outlook is positive in this regard.
In addition to youth unemployment, the variation of unemployment rates by
region is also a major issue. The unemployment rate differs greatly by region, as the
marginalized interior regions reportedly have significantly higher rates of unemployment
than the coastal cities. The disparate unemployment rates are mainly due to coastal areas
traditionally attracting a larger proportion of investment, particularly in tourism and
industry. Furthermore, Tunisia’s economic growth in the past two decades has only
benefited select regions. For example, the disadvantaged North-West region experienced
significant poverty reduction and greater employment opportunities during this time
period, while the disadvantaged Middle-West, particularly the governorates of Sidi-
Bouzid and Kasserine, did not benefit from the economic growth. Unfortunately, there is
a lack of reliable statistics at the regional level to help clarify the extent of inequality. In
some towns bordering Algeria, it is estimated that unemployment is as high as 50%, and
the unemployment rate in Sidi Bouzid was around 30% at the time of the first protests of
the Jasmine Revolution. The National Democratic Institute conducted focus groups with
Tunisian youth around the country in March 2011 (Collins 2011, 9). In this study,
researchers found that participants from the cities of Sidi Bouzid, Gabès, Le Kef and
Kairouan were more likely to argue that the government has led an intentional effort to
exclude interior regions, while respondents from coastal cities of Tunis, Sousse, Bizerte,
Sfax and Nabeul were less likely to focus on regional disparities. As evident through
these focus group studies, regional inequalities and the corresponding disparate rates of
unemployment are a continued source of instability in Tunisia.
The current political context is one in which the economic crisis remains largely
unaddressed, creating a grim short-term outlook for addressing unemployment. Elections
were held for the Constituent Assembly on 23 October 2011, after which the assembly
appointed a new government and initiated the constitution drafting process. Due to the
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