Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

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Revolution” will depend on the efforts of the Tunisian people themselves, who appear to be well prepared to undertake this daunting task. That said, it is also clear that the international community, and individual countries such as the United States, have a strong interest in seeing the Tunisian revolution completed by a successful transition to an open, democratic polity. There can be little doubt that a successful outcome in Tunisia will provide an impressive model for others to follow, including regional states that have subsequently undergone revolutions against authoritarian regimes, namely Egypt and Libya, and perhaps as well to states in the midst of such a revolution (Syria), to say nothing of those states that have not yet experienced the upheavals of the Arab Spring, including neighboring Algeria and Morocco. Given its relatively small size and the richness of its human capital, even a modest amount of international assistance could go a long way to assure the success of the democratic transition in Tunisia. When compared to the huge costs of the effort to impose democracy in Iraq, a modest investment in assisting Tunisia in its transition could produce untold benefit throughout the region, and therefore should be a high priority for the United States and, indeed, for the entire international community. 214
List of Interviewees Washington DC, Briefings • I. William Zartman, SAIS, Conflict Management, 5 October 2011 • Previewing Tunisia’s Historic Elections, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 14 October 2011, POMED panel with o Chiheb Ghazouani, Attorney at Law and Vice President of the Tunisian nongovernmental organization Afkar; o Mongi Boughzala, Professor of Economics, University of Tunis El-Manar and Research Fellow at the Economic Research Forum; o J. Scott Carpenter, Principal, Google Ideas o Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, POMED • Tunisia: Act Two - On October 23 the first free elections will be held in the country where the “Arab Spring” started. What next? SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations, 17 October 2011 o His Excellency Mohamed Salah Tekaya, Ambassador of Tunisia to the United States o Mohamed Ali Malouche, President Tunisian American Young Professionals o Tamara Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State o Ambassador Kurt Volker, Senior Fellow and Managing Director, Center for Transatlantic Relations o Daniele Moro, Visiting Scholar, Center for Transatlantic Relations 215
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Johns Hopkins University School for
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Acknowledgements We are most gratef
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List of Acronyms AKP Adalet ve Kalk
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xii
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proposed goal (as in the previous e
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democracy is a continual testing pr
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What’s in a Revolution? The timin
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limited to Tunisia, these vivid dep
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political system before any of the
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discontent of so many in Tunisia wh
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eality,” signified by Tunisian pe
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mantra sparked the Kasbah sit-ins r
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in early January of 2011, you would
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independence from the Ottoman Empir
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ack to the 1970s (SAIS Group Meetin
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Two Tunisias: How A Revolution Whic
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continued to cite statistics claimi
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inequality were most severe. Combat
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in government could drop precipitou
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for bold political leadership in Tu
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History of Secularism in Tunisia In
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1) Freedom to form and to join orga
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Source: Stepan, Alfred C. “Religi
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terms of campaigning, the political
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that in practice many people who es
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Short-term • Secular parties must
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Islamism and Laïcité in the Tunis
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girl, a high-achieving student at h
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laws are either supported directly
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and she argues that he, like many s
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during exams, preventing other stud
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Constituent Assembly should keep th
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Women’s Rights in Tunisia: A “N
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dismiss the question as a non-issue
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In immediate post-revolutionary Tun
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Others express concern about the va
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something every Tunisian boy does n
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Mr. Ghannouchi is equally surprised
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Mr. Hedri showed concern over the l
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has occurred in response to politic
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The Post-Transition Constitutional
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Theoretical Literature While there
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Tunisian Case Following Ben Ali’s
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parties. With the internal arrangem
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issues of unemployment, reduced cor
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Recommendations • NCA and politic
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Political Party Development Amy Ham
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experience and expertise, will be k
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with Laryssa Chomiak, SAIS group me
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epresented a complete departure fro
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To some extent, the focus on the qu
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• Enhance the legitimacy and enfo
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Ennahdha and the Salafis Roberta Lu
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The trial against Nabil Karoui, the
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Some Possible Explanations The hesi
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the salafist movement Al-Salafiya A
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violence, to lay the bases for a ne
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Tunisian Civil Society Before and A
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Bourguiba,” Bellin points out,
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nip in the bud any challenges to pa
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“training-of-trainers” (ToT) ev
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The focus of civil society groups i
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economic development in Tunisia. Th
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The Tunisian Youth Fallout: A Look
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that they found voting to be the mo
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head (Dégage, 2011). It should the
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graduates are unemployed (SAIS Grou
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to participate as a citizen in a de
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are rumored to consist only of 3,00
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Medium-term • At some point, the
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Part III: Security, Justice and Eco
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The Role of the Military in Post-Be
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insufficient to prevent the demonst
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disruptions during voting, the tota
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This is in sharp contrast to the mi
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Recommendations While the military
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Internal Security and Reform in Tun
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The Implements of Repression There
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undesirable organizations, stifle d
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evolution, many police, especially
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A Way Forward: Policy Reforms At pr
Page 175 and 176: Transitional Justice and National R
Page 177 and 178: Those released therefore included p
Page 179 and 180: The current situation in many ways
Page 181 and 182: circulating that the informal strik
Page 183 and 184: the commercial interests of the ban
Page 185 and 186: and clear limits to police behavior
Page 187 and 188: Addressing Unemployment Rebekah Cha
Page 189 and 190: The forecasting is based on the ass
Page 191 and 192: of its revolution. This has had a c
Page 193 and 194: Boosting the Tourism Sector The tou
Page 195 and 196: absorb all of the university gradua
Page 197 and 198: language and technology skills, whi
Page 199 and 200: Understanding Unemployment in Tunis
Page 201 and 202: ather than shifts from low to high
Page 203 and 204: Figure 2: Unemployment by age and e
Page 205 and 206: the Tunisian economy. Thus, creatin
Page 207 and 208: • Encourage entrepreneurship: Tra
Page 209 and 210: U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Cody Die
Page 211 and 212: cultural differences that may inhib
Page 213 and 214: the Constitutional Assembly in Tuni
Page 215 and 216: order to receive these funds over o
Page 217 and 218: and access to jobs in Libya for Tun
Page 219 and 220: Conclusion P. Terrence Hopmann The
Page 221 and 222: the domination of the salafis and o
Page 223 and 224: well educated, but under or unemplo
Page 225: persons, a huge contingent for such
Page 229 and 230: • Salah Bourjini, former division
Page 231 and 232: • Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of the
Page 233 and 234: Bibliography Abouzeid, Rania. 21 Ja
Page 235 and 236: Cook, Steven A. 20 January 2011.
Page 237 and 238: Le Monde. 25 January 2011. “Tunis
Page 239 and 240: Silver, Vernon. 12 December 2011.
Page 241: World Bank. 2004. “Dynamique de L
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