Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

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the main obstacle to be overcome is high levels of public distrust of the out-going regime (Horowitz 2008, 21). The other major debate concerns the content of post-transition constitutions with regard to the configuration of institutions that they create. Understandably, given the even greater sensitivity to local contexts with respect to content, there are even fewer ‘best practices’ to follow despite the fact that, in the long-run, the content of a constitution will have a much bigger impact on its ability to mitigate conflict than the procedure through which it was reached. There are an endless number of possible configurations, and only some relevant examples will be mentioned here. For example, Horowitz mentions the trade-offs associated with the ‘consociational’ model of democracy which aims to achieve governance through grand coalitions where all major groups are represented (Horowitz 2008, 3). While this has appealing characteristics, particularly its inclusiveness and attempt to build consensus, there are some drawbacks to this model as well. Not only does the policy process typically become very complex, but the willingness of moderate leaders to form cross-group coalitions can incite a backlash from their own group and, eventually, lead to the formation of fringe groups which tend to be more extreme. Where the precise nature of the institutions is under debate, Horowitz concludes that at the least constitution drafters ought to aim for coherence of design. However, he notes in parallel that “the process of making constitutions…is much more conducive to partial or even conflicting innovations than it is to the adoption of coherent designs whose elements reinforce each other” (Horowitz 2008, 15). This, combined with Widner’s observation that conflict resolution and constitution writing often espouse conflicting imperatives (Widner 2008, 1533), highlights the delicacy of the posttransition constitution-writing process and will help us to identify potential pit-falls in Tunisia. Indeed, in his paper, Weiner argues that “in societies in transition, efforts to resolve deep divisions or fundamental disagreements about the nature of society through constitutional drafting may sharpen political differences and heighten the political salience of controversial issues or social cleavages” (Weiner 2011, 9). 84
Tunisian Case Following Ben Ali’s departure on 14 January 2011, Tunisia went through three interim arrangements before the October 2011 elections. Due to continued protester pressure three reform committees were created, including The High Commission for the Fulfillment of Revolutionary Goals, Political Reform, and Democratic Transition (also known as the Ben Achour Commission). This 150-member commission contained representatives from twelve political parties and eighteen civil society organizations. At this stage of the transition, the debate that polarized elites and protesters was what the next significant step should be; either a presidential election with constitutional continuity, or elections for a constituent assembly. In view of the high level of mistrust of old elites and institutions, combined with the revolutionary fervor of the population and particularly through the so-called “Kasbah 2” sit-in, the Ben Achour Commission announced elections for a constituent assembly and then, on 23 March 2011, suspended the 1959 constitution. It was replaced as an interim arrangement with Decree Law 14, which empowered the interim government to make decisions with a limited mandate such as adopting the new electoral law on 12 April 2011, which favored a variation on closedlist proportional representation. The National Constituent Assembly Elections for the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) took place on 23 October 2011 and resulted in a three-party coalition or ‘troika’ as it is now referred to. Ennahdha, the moderate Islamist party, gained the highest number of seats, winning 89 out of a possible 217. It made a coalition agreement with both the Congress for the Republic (CPR) party, which gained 29 seats, and Ettakatol (or Forum Démocratic pour le Travail et les Libertés (FDTL)), with its 20 seats. These elections, while being correctly lauded as a success under the circumstances, were not controversy-free with regard to the resultant operating legitimacy of the NCA. First of all, there was a high level of public confusion over the purpose of the elections. According to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems 85
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Johns Hopkins University School for
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Acknowledgements We are most gratef
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List of Acronyms AKP Adalet ve Kalk
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xii
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proposed goal (as in the previous e
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democracy is a continual testing pr
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What’s in a Revolution? The timin
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limited to Tunisia, these vivid dep
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political system before any of the
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discontent of so many in Tunisia wh
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eality,” signified by Tunisian pe
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mantra sparked the Kasbah sit-ins r
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in early January of 2011, you would
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independence from the Ottoman Empir
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ack to the 1970s (SAIS Group Meetin
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Two Tunisias: How A Revolution Whic
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continued to cite statistics claimi
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inequality were most severe. Combat
Page 45 and 46: in government could drop precipitou
Page 47: for bold political leadership in Tu
Page 50 and 51: History of Secularism in Tunisia In
Page 52 and 53: 1) Freedom to form and to join orga
Page 54 and 55: Source: Stepan, Alfred C. “Religi
Page 56 and 57: terms of campaigning, the political
Page 58 and 59: that in practice many people who es
Page 60 and 61: Short-term • Secular parties must
Page 63 and 64: Islamism and Laïcité in the Tunis
Page 65 and 66: girl, a high-achieving student at h
Page 67 and 68: laws are either supported directly
Page 69 and 70: and she argues that he, like many s
Page 71 and 72: during exams, preventing other stud
Page 73 and 74: Constituent Assembly should keep th
Page 75 and 76: Women’s Rights in Tunisia: A “N
Page 77 and 78: dismiss the question as a non-issue
Page 79 and 80: In immediate post-revolutionary Tun
Page 81 and 82: Others express concern about the va
Page 83 and 84: something every Tunisian boy does n
Page 85 and 86: Mr. Ghannouchi is equally surprised
Page 87 and 88: Mr. Hedri showed concern over the l
Page 89: has occurred in response to politic
Page 93 and 94: The Post-Transition Constitutional
Page 95: Theoretical Literature While there
Page 99 and 100: parties. With the internal arrangem
Page 101 and 102: issues of unemployment, reduced cor
Page 103 and 104: Recommendations • NCA and politic
Page 105 and 106: Political Party Development Amy Ham
Page 107 and 108: experience and expertise, will be k
Page 109 and 110: with Laryssa Chomiak, SAIS group me
Page 111 and 112: epresented a complete departure fro
Page 113 and 114: To some extent, the focus on the qu
Page 115 and 116: • Enhance the legitimacy and enfo
Page 117 and 118: Ennahdha and the Salafis Roberta Lu
Page 119 and 120: The trial against Nabil Karoui, the
Page 121 and 122: Some Possible Explanations The hesi
Page 123 and 124: the salafist movement Al-Salafiya A
Page 125 and 126: violence, to lay the bases for a ne
Page 127 and 128: Tunisian Civil Society Before and A
Page 129 and 130: Bourguiba,” Bellin points out,
Page 131 and 132: nip in the bud any challenges to pa
Page 133 and 134: “training-of-trainers” (ToT) ev
Page 135 and 136: The focus of civil society groups i
Page 137 and 138: economic development in Tunisia. Th
Page 139 and 140: The Tunisian Youth Fallout: A Look
Page 141 and 142: that they found voting to be the mo
Page 143 and 144: head (Dégage, 2011). It should the
Page 145 and 146: graduates are unemployed (SAIS Grou
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to participate as a citizen in a de
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are rumored to consist only of 3,00
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Medium-term • At some point, the
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Part III: Security, Justice and Eco
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The Role of the Military in Post-Be
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insufficient to prevent the demonst
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disruptions during voting, the tota
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This is in sharp contrast to the mi
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Recommendations While the military
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Internal Security and Reform in Tun
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The Implements of Repression There
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undesirable organizations, stifle d
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evolution, many police, especially
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A Way Forward: Policy Reforms At pr
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Transitional Justice and National R
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Those released therefore included p
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The current situation in many ways
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circulating that the informal strik
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the commercial interests of the ban
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and clear limits to police behavior
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Addressing Unemployment Rebekah Cha
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The forecasting is based on the ass
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of its revolution. This has had a c
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Boosting the Tourism Sector The tou
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absorb all of the university gradua
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language and technology skills, whi
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Understanding Unemployment in Tunis
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ather than shifts from low to high
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Figure 2: Unemployment by age and e
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the Tunisian economy. Thus, creatin
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• Encourage entrepreneurship: Tra
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U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Cody Die
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cultural differences that may inhib
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the Constitutional Assembly in Tuni
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order to receive these funds over o
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and access to jobs in Libya for Tun
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Conclusion P. Terrence Hopmann The
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the domination of the salafis and o
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well educated, but under or unemplo
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persons, a huge contingent for such
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List of Interviewees Washington DC,
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• Salah Bourjini, former division
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• Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of the
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Bibliography Abouzeid, Rania. 21 Ja
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Cook, Steven A. 20 January 2011.
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Le Monde. 25 January 2011. “Tunis
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Silver, Vernon. 12 December 2011.
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World Bank. 2004. “Dynamique de L
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