Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

focus on these political processes, scant attention has been paid to economic grievances,
which were the main trigger of the recent conflict. However, these issues are a major, if
not the main, priority for the general population today. In public opinion polls conducted
by the International Republican Institute in May 2011, 30% of survey respondents stated
that unemployment and the economic crisis were the biggest problems facing Tunisia as a
whole. Additionally, there is growing pessimism regarding the economic situation. In
the same poll, 66% of the survey respondents described the current economic situation as
“somewhat bad” or “very bad” in March 2011; this rose to 73% in May 2011
(International Republican Institute, 2011, 4-7).
The general population expected the Constituent Assembly, led by the Ennahdha
party, and the transition government to take immediate action on these issues once
elected in October. However, the government’s inaction has triggered protests and sit-ins
across the country, which have escalated since January 2012. The level of unrest has
discouraged a resumption of the normal level of economic activity, and the lack of
economic growth has fanned further protests. Consequently, these recent events have
created a vicious self-reinforcing loop and led to a period of continued economic
recession. Furthermore, as general elections are tentatively scheduled for November
2012, the elections will likely be the main focus for political parties in the upcoming
year. As they engage in a year of political campaigning, it is unlikely that the interim
government will make significant headway on these issues. If the economic situation
deteriorates further, there is potential for the society to look to more radical elements to
lead the country. Multiple commentators have noted the threat of the growing popularity
of salafism. This was evident in the recent two-month long protests staged by salafists at
Manouba University against the ban of the niqab. The success of Tunisia’s democratic
transition depends largely on the government’s ability to lower unemployment, and the
government must readjust its priorities accordingly.
This also coincides at a time when Tunisia’s two biggest economic partners, the
European Union (EU) and Libya, are also facing economic woes. The Eurozone
continues to struggle through its sovereign debt crisis, and Libya is in a transition
process, as the country struggles to establish a new government and deal with aftermath
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