Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

To some extent, the focus on the question of the country’s identity is natural given
the fact that the Constituent Assembly is charged with drafting the constitution—a
document that establishes the contours of the political system to reflect some
interpretation of “national identity.” However, many of the secular parties, including the
PDP, Afek Tounes and PDM, that appear intent on thwarting Ennahdha in the
Constituent Assembly risk falling out of step with the majority voters, who prioritize
economic and security issues far above questions of national identity (GeoPoll/NDI,
January 2012). These parties may appeal to their base, but they will have trouble
expanding their reach with a continued focus on identity issues. If the elected party
representatives prove incapable of passing key legislation and drafting a constitution
within the Assembly’s one-year mandate, it will not only undermine confidence in the
parties but also in the capacity of a democratic system to address the needs and interests
of the population.
Voter dissatisfaction with the political parties and broader political system has
begun to be manifest in the polls. Confidence in the current political scene fell to 20% in
January 2012, down from 56% in April 2011. A drop in confidence levels is to be
expected given the messiness of a transparent democratic process, but the sharp decline
should be a warning sign to politicians in a country still undergoing a very fragile
political transition. Twenty percent of polled CPR voters stated that they would not be
voting again for unclear reasons and 26% of surveyed Ettakatol voters expressed their
intention to vote for a different party (Poll conducted by Abdelwahab Ben Hafaiedh.
January 2012).
Conclusion
After decades of dictatorship in which divisions were suppressed through coercion, it is
not surprising that questions of national identity and old divisions between a Westernoriented
elite and more traditional populations have resurfaced. As representatives of the
country’s diverse population, parties should reflect these divisions but not inflame them.
In Tunisia, as elsewhere, these divisions have been exploited and deepened by the parties,
though that is not to say that many of the party’s leaders do not genuinely fear the
101