Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

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economy continues to improve. Unfortunately, economic growth does not guarantee that new jobs will become available for university graduates or the skilled labor force. Overview of Tunisia’s Unemployment Situation Contrary to popular opinion, Tunisia’s revolution did not stem from a lack of democracy or the endemic unemployment crisis, but was driven by a desire to restore liberty. Young Tunisians find many of the available jobs to be menial, with relatively low pay. While lower wages are beneficial to an export driven economy, Tunisia has not seen and will not see significant decreases in unemployment as a result of trade liberalization and democratization. This is primarily due to the current instability and insecurity in the country. Since the revolution, industrial output dropped by 15% and tourism declined by over 45% percent. In 2011, an additional 200,000 people have lost their jobs, which further increased the number of strikes and demonstrations. Unemployment is particularly high among individuals between ages 15 and 24 (30%). More than 66% of university graduates are unemployed and typically unemployed for over 18 months after receiving their diploma. Many young Tunisians are frustrated that they are still unemployed after the revolution, but begrudgingly understand that there is little the government can do to provide jobs in the short term. On the contrary, older generations believe that the youth have not taken their share of leadership in shaping the trajectory of both the government and economy. Regardless, the scale and persistence of unemployment has existed prior to the revolution, which indicates that the causes of the problem are much more complex and dynamic. The labor market determines the payoffs from investment in education. Functioning labor markets allocate human capital into activities that are the most growth enhancing for the entire country. In Tunisia, job creation in private services and manufacturing has been declining over the past two decades. Yet this sector still accounts for over 50% of all new jobs. The public sector accounts for 20% of all new jobs per year. Economic growth in Tunisia stems from productivity growth within each sector, 188
ather than shifts from low to high productivity sectors. Consequently, workers have not moved from low to high productivity sectors with higher earnings potential. New jobs did not require a more educated populace but simply more unskilled labor to fulfill the increase in productivity. Tunisian Unskilled Labor Market The main employers of unskilled youth labor for non-qualified jobs or intermediate qualifications such as clerical support, service and sales, agriculture, plant and machine operation and assembling are in the following sectors: agriculture, public administration, construction, retail, manufacturing, transportation, telecommunications, hotels, and restaurants. In almost all these sectors, the net generation of youth employment exceeded the growth rate of youth labor participation due to the general growth in the private sector over the past decade. As a result, unemployment rates in these sectors have decreased. This clearly demonstrates that labor markets are not inefficient for unskilled workers. Thus, sustained economic growth of the private sector will help reduce youth unemployment, especially in the unskilled labor markets over the next 5-6 years. According to Marco Stampini and Audrey Verdier-Chouchane’s forecasting analysis, using the assumptions that: (a) the GDP elasticity of youth employment will remain constant at 0.24 (the average for the period 2005-07), and (b) GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2011 (as a result of the revolution) and by a constant 4.5% from 2012; youth unemployment is expected to have peaked at 26.2% in 2008, to have currently decreased to 25.4%, and to further decrease to 10.5% by 2018. Thus, creating more jobs for unskilled labor requires developing a business climate that fosters private investment, both foreign and domestic (See chapter by Rebekah Chang). Foreign investment from Europe and around the world will doubtless slowly increase as the country stabilizes; however, domestic investments such as building infrastructure are necessary in the short term to promote jobs and stabilize the economy in the long run. These investments will not only help jumpstart the economy by reducing the number of unemployed unskilled laborers, it will also help close the widening income and social gap between the richer coastal cities and the poor interior. 189
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Johns Hopkins University School for
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Acknowledgements We are most gratef
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List of Acronyms AKP Adalet ve Kalk
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xii
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proposed goal (as in the previous e
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democracy is a continual testing pr
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What’s in a Revolution? The timin
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limited to Tunisia, these vivid dep
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political system before any of the
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discontent of so many in Tunisia wh
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eality,” signified by Tunisian pe
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mantra sparked the Kasbah sit-ins r
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in early January of 2011, you would
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independence from the Ottoman Empir
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ack to the 1970s (SAIS Group Meetin
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Two Tunisias: How A Revolution Whic
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continued to cite statistics claimi
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inequality were most severe. Combat
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in government could drop precipitou
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for bold political leadership in Tu
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History of Secularism in Tunisia In
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1) Freedom to form and to join orga
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Source: Stepan, Alfred C. “Religi
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terms of campaigning, the political
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that in practice many people who es
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Short-term • Secular parties must
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Islamism and Laïcité in the Tunis
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girl, a high-achieving student at h
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laws are either supported directly
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and she argues that he, like many s
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during exams, preventing other stud
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Constituent Assembly should keep th
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Women’s Rights in Tunisia: A “N
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dismiss the question as a non-issue
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In immediate post-revolutionary Tun
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Others express concern about the va
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something every Tunisian boy does n
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Mr. Ghannouchi is equally surprised
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Mr. Hedri showed concern over the l
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has occurred in response to politic
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The Post-Transition Constitutional
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Theoretical Literature While there
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Tunisian Case Following Ben Ali’s
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parties. With the internal arrangem
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issues of unemployment, reduced cor
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Recommendations • NCA and politic
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Political Party Development Amy Ham
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experience and expertise, will be k
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with Laryssa Chomiak, SAIS group me
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epresented a complete departure fro
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To some extent, the focus on the qu
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• Enhance the legitimacy and enfo
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Ennahdha and the Salafis Roberta Lu
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The trial against Nabil Karoui, the
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Some Possible Explanations The hesi
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the salafist movement Al-Salafiya A
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violence, to lay the bases for a ne
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Tunisian Civil Society Before and A
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Bourguiba,” Bellin points out,
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nip in the bud any challenges to pa
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“training-of-trainers” (ToT) ev
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The focus of civil society groups i
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economic development in Tunisia. Th
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The Tunisian Youth Fallout: A Look
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that they found voting to be the mo
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head (Dégage, 2011). It should the
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graduates are unemployed (SAIS Grou
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to participate as a citizen in a de
Page 149 and 150: are rumored to consist only of 3,00
Page 151 and 152: Medium-term • At some point, the
Page 153 and 154: Part III: Security, Justice and Eco
Page 155 and 156: The Role of the Military in Post-Be
Page 157 and 158: insufficient to prevent the demonst
Page 159 and 160: disruptions during voting, the tota
Page 161 and 162: This is in sharp contrast to the mi
Page 163 and 164: Recommendations While the military
Page 165 and 166: Internal Security and Reform in Tun
Page 167 and 168: The Implements of Repression There
Page 169 and 170: undesirable organizations, stifle d
Page 171 and 172: evolution, many police, especially
Page 173 and 174: A Way Forward: Policy Reforms At pr
Page 175 and 176: Transitional Justice and National R
Page 177 and 178: Those released therefore included p
Page 179 and 180: The current situation in many ways
Page 181 and 182: circulating that the informal strik
Page 183 and 184: the commercial interests of the ban
Page 185 and 186: and clear limits to police behavior
Page 187 and 188: Addressing Unemployment Rebekah Cha
Page 189 and 190: The forecasting is based on the ass
Page 191 and 192: of its revolution. This has had a c
Page 193 and 194: Boosting the Tourism Sector The tou
Page 195 and 196: absorb all of the university gradua
Page 197 and 198: language and technology skills, whi
Page 199: Understanding Unemployment in Tunis
Page 203 and 204: Figure 2: Unemployment by age and e
Page 205 and 206: the Tunisian economy. Thus, creatin
Page 207 and 208: • Encourage entrepreneurship: Tra
Page 209 and 210: U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Cody Die
Page 211 and 212: cultural differences that may inhib
Page 213 and 214: the Constitutional Assembly in Tuni
Page 215 and 216: order to receive these funds over o
Page 217 and 218: and access to jobs in Libya for Tun
Page 219 and 220: Conclusion P. Terrence Hopmann The
Page 221 and 222: the domination of the salafis and o
Page 223 and 224: well educated, but under or unemplo
Page 225 and 226: persons, a huge contingent for such
Page 227 and 228: List of Interviewees Washington DC,
Page 229 and 230: • Salah Bourjini, former division
Page 231 and 232: • Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of the
Page 233 and 234: Bibliography Abouzeid, Rania. 21 Ja
Page 235 and 236: Cook, Steven A. 20 January 2011.
Page 237 and 238: Le Monde. 25 January 2011. “Tunis
Page 239 and 240: Silver, Vernon. 12 December 2011.
Page 241: World Bank. 2004. “Dynamique de L
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