Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012 - Johns Hopkins School of ...

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Almost all Tunisians agree that the first article of the constitution must state that Tunisians are an Arab Muslim people. There is also consensus (aside from a fringe group of salafis) that women should retain the equal rights that were afforded them under Ben Ali and President Bourguiba before him. Thus, maintaining political unity between the different regions in Tunisia should not be difficult in the short term. The danger only comes over a longer period of time. In the medium term, in the run up to parliamentary elections after the referendum on the constitution, political leaders can minimize any fissures between the interior and the coast by creating economic plans for both parts of the country as a part of their platform. To some extent, this was already done in the lead up to the Constituent Assembly elections in October. Ennahdha includes “regional imbalances and the spread of poverty” as one of the main economic challenges faced by Tunisia in their campaign booklet. One of the overall objectives of their social and economic model is to “address regional imbalances by improving infrastructure and collective services in the less developed regions…” Political parties should include in their platform ideas to strengthen the economy in the interior regions, through infrastructure projects and creating incentives for investment. The likelihood that this will happen is quite likely, since without such programs, political parties will lose votes in large swaths of the country. After the great success of Ennahdha, particularly in the interior and the rural areas, other political parties will try to reach out and appeal to these places. Political parties should also include candidates from around the country on their ballots to encourage participation in the next round of elections in regions where voter registration was low. Long-term, politicians need to make sure they carry out these promises and implement these projects. This is a true challenge. After the revolution, Tunisia’s growing economy dropped to a pitiful 1.8% growth in GDP in 2011, barely keeping up with inflation. International investors are waiting to see how things shake out politically before they start any new projects in the country, and the newfound political freedom has led to persistent strikes across sectors. This is hardly an ideal climate for expensive infrastructure projects and increasing social welfare programs. However, this is a time 34
for bold political leadership in Tunisia. Tunisians are understandably wary of a disproportionately strong leader after their experience with Ben Ali, but the situation will not improve unless the parties in power rise above “politics as usual” and work together to solve Tunisia’s gravest problems. Though there is a lot to be skeptical of in Tunisia’s future, there is also a lot to celebrate. Tunisia has a good shot at developing and maintaining a democracy; it is a homogenous society; it has a well-educated work force; and it has a strong history of constitutionality. 35
Page 1: Johns Hopkins University School for
Page 7 and 8: Acknowledgements We are most gratef
Page 9 and 10: List of Acronyms AKP Adalet ve Kalk
Page 12 and 13: xii
Page 14 and 15: proposed goal (as in the previous e
Page 16 and 17: democracy is a continual testing pr
Page 19 and 20: What’s in a Revolution? The timin
Page 21 and 22: limited to Tunisia, these vivid dep
Page 23 and 24: political system before any of the
Page 25: discontent of so many in Tunisia wh
Page 28 and 29: eality,” signified by Tunisian pe
Page 30 and 31: mantra sparked the Kasbah sit-ins r
Page 32 and 33: in early January of 2011, you would
Page 34 and 35: independence from the Ottoman Empir
Page 36 and 37: ack to the 1970s (SAIS Group Meetin
Page 39 and 40: Two Tunisias: How A Revolution Whic
Page 41 and 42: continued to cite statistics claimi
Page 43 and 44: inequality were most severe. Combat
Page 45: in government could drop precipitou
Page 50 and 51: History of Secularism in Tunisia In
Page 52 and 53: 1) Freedom to form and to join orga
Page 54 and 55: Source: Stepan, Alfred C. “Religi
Page 56 and 57: terms of campaigning, the political
Page 58 and 59: that in practice many people who es
Page 60 and 61: Short-term • Secular parties must
Page 63 and 64: Islamism and Laïcité in the Tunis
Page 65 and 66: girl, a high-achieving student at h
Page 67 and 68: laws are either supported directly
Page 69 and 70: and she argues that he, like many s
Page 71 and 72: during exams, preventing other stud
Page 73 and 74: Constituent Assembly should keep th
Page 75 and 76: Women’s Rights in Tunisia: A “N
Page 77 and 78: dismiss the question as a non-issue
Page 79 and 80: In immediate post-revolutionary Tun
Page 81 and 82: Others express concern about the va
Page 83 and 84: something every Tunisian boy does n
Page 85 and 86: Mr. Ghannouchi is equally surprised
Page 87 and 88: Mr. Hedri showed concern over the l
Page 89: has occurred in response to politic
Page 93 and 94: The Post-Transition Constitutional
Page 95 and 96: Theoretical Literature While there
Page 97 and 98:
Tunisian Case Following Ben Ali’s
Page 99 and 100:
parties. With the internal arrangem
Page 101 and 102:
issues of unemployment, reduced cor
Page 103 and 104:
Recommendations • NCA and politic
Page 105 and 106:
Political Party Development Amy Ham
Page 107 and 108:
experience and expertise, will be k
Page 109 and 110:
with Laryssa Chomiak, SAIS group me
Page 111 and 112:
epresented a complete departure fro
Page 113 and 114:
To some extent, the focus on the qu
Page 115 and 116:
• Enhance the legitimacy and enfo
Page 117 and 118:
Ennahdha and the Salafis Roberta Lu
Page 119 and 120:
The trial against Nabil Karoui, the
Page 121 and 122:
Some Possible Explanations The hesi
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the salafist movement Al-Salafiya A
Page 125 and 126:
violence, to lay the bases for a ne
Page 127 and 128:
Tunisian Civil Society Before and A
Page 129 and 130:
Bourguiba,” Bellin points out,
Page 131 and 132:
nip in the bud any challenges to pa
Page 133 and 134:
“training-of-trainers” (ToT) ev
Page 135 and 136:
The focus of civil society groups i
Page 137 and 138:
economic development in Tunisia. Th
Page 139 and 140:
The Tunisian Youth Fallout: A Look
Page 141 and 142:
that they found voting to be the mo
Page 143 and 144:
head (Dégage, 2011). It should the
Page 145 and 146:
graduates are unemployed (SAIS Grou
Page 147 and 148:
to participate as a citizen in a de
Page 149 and 150:
are rumored to consist only of 3,00
Page 151 and 152:
Medium-term • At some point, the
Page 153 and 154:
Part III: Security, Justice and Eco
Page 155 and 156:
The Role of the Military in Post-Be
Page 157 and 158:
insufficient to prevent the demonst
Page 159 and 160:
disruptions during voting, the tota
Page 161 and 162:
This is in sharp contrast to the mi
Page 163 and 164:
Recommendations While the military
Page 165 and 166:
Internal Security and Reform in Tun
Page 167 and 168:
The Implements of Repression There
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undesirable organizations, stifle d
Page 171 and 172:
evolution, many police, especially
Page 173 and 174:
A Way Forward: Policy Reforms At pr
Page 175 and 176:
Transitional Justice and National R
Page 177 and 178:
Those released therefore included p
Page 179 and 180:
The current situation in many ways
Page 181 and 182:
circulating that the informal strik
Page 183 and 184:
the commercial interests of the ban
Page 185 and 186:
and clear limits to police behavior
Page 187 and 188:
Addressing Unemployment Rebekah Cha
Page 189 and 190:
The forecasting is based on the ass
Page 191 and 192:
of its revolution. This has had a c
Page 193 and 194:
Boosting the Tourism Sector The tou
Page 195 and 196:
absorb all of the university gradua
Page 197 and 198:
language and technology skills, whi
Page 199 and 200:
Understanding Unemployment in Tunis
Page 201 and 202:
ather than shifts from low to high
Page 203 and 204:
Figure 2: Unemployment by age and e
Page 205 and 206:
the Tunisian economy. Thus, creatin
Page 207 and 208:
• Encourage entrepreneurship: Tra
Page 209 and 210:
U.S. Assistance in Tunisia Cody Die
Page 211 and 212:
cultural differences that may inhib
Page 213 and 214:
the Constitutional Assembly in Tuni
Page 215 and 216:
order to receive these funds over o
Page 217 and 218:
and access to jobs in Libya for Tun
Page 219 and 220:
Conclusion P. Terrence Hopmann The
Page 221 and 222:
the domination of the salafis and o
Page 223 and 224:
well educated, but under or unemplo
Page 225 and 226:
persons, a huge contingent for such
Page 227 and 228:
List of Interviewees Washington DC,
Page 229 and 230:
• Salah Bourjini, former division
Page 231 and 232:
• Ahmed Ibrahim, Secretary of the
Page 233 and 234:
Bibliography Abouzeid, Rania. 21 Ja
Page 235 and 236:
Cook, Steven A. 20 January 2011.
Page 237 and 238:
Le Monde. 25 January 2011. “Tunis
Page 239 and 240:
Silver, Vernon. 12 December 2011.
Page 241:
World Bank. 2004. “Dynamique de L
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