Short Range Transit Plan 2008-2013 - Omnitrans

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IBI GROUP SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN REPORT OMNITRANS COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT & SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN Figure 11-4: Base and Average Fares..................................................................................................... 235 Figure 11-5: Operating Ratios.................................................................................................................. 236 Figure 11-6: Projected Characteristics Omnitrans Total.......................................................................... 237 Figure 11-7: Projected Characteristics Fixed Route Total ....................................................................... 238 Figure 11-8: Projected Characteristics Fixed Route ................................................................................ 239 Figure 11-9: Projected Characteristics OmniLink .................................................................................... 240 Figure 11-10: Projected Characteristics Access...................................................................................... 241 Figure 11-11: Summary of Six-Year (FY 2008-2013) Operating Expenses and Revenues ($000) ........ 242 Figure 11-12: Six-Year (FY 2008-2013) Fund Balance Estimates .......................................................... 243 Figure 11-13: Summary of Six-Year (FY 2008-2013) Capital Costs and Funding ($000)....................... 248 Figure 12-1: Partially Constrained Service Plan for Omnitrans Fixed Route East Valley Routes (Weekdays) – (a)............................................................................................................. 250 Figure 12-2: Partially Constrained Service Plan for Omnitrans Fixed Route East Valley Routes (Weekdays) – (b)............................................................................................................. 251 Figure 12-3: Partially Constrained Service Plan for Omnitrans Fixed Route West Valley Routes (Weekdays) ..................................................................................................................... 252 Figure 12-4: Unconstrained Service Plan for Omnitrans Fixed Route East Valley Routes (Weekdays) – (a).................................................................................................................................... 255 Figure 12-5: Unconstrained Service Plan for Omnitrans Fixed Route East Valley Routes (Weekdays) – (b).................................................................................................................................... 256 Figure 12-6: Unconstrained Service Plan for Omnitrans Fixed Route West Valley Routes (Weekdays) 257 Figure 12-7: Resource Impacts................................................................................................................ 258 Figure 13-1: Basic Links Between Transportation and Land Use............................................................ 269 July 11, 2007
IBI GROUP FOREWORD SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN REPORT OMNITRANS COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT & SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN The provision of Omnitrans transit services in Southwestern San Bernardino County is at a critical juncture. On the one hand, transit continues to provide an essential social service, providing youths, seniors, and low-income workers who have limited or no access to an automobile with the means to access employment, educational, medical and social destinations. With road congestion continuing to increase in the County, and with it concerns about air quality and global warming, transit will be asked to shoulder a growing share of trip making. At the same time, the provision of high-quality, cost-effective transit services in the Omnitrans service area has never been more challenging. In the simplest of terms, ridership has been decreasing over the past several years, while costs have been increasing. There are many factors contributing to this situation, only some of which are in the direct control of Omnitrans. On the ridership side, while population and employment in the service area have continued to grow at a robust pace, they have continued to do so largely at the margins of the urbanized area, in single-family subdivisions and suburban business parks that are difficult to serve effectively if at all. Despite this, Omnitrans has been able to grow ridership in the quickly-developing West Valley, but that growth has been offset by job losses in the older East Valley communities, with the recent loss of key anchors such as the Carousel Mall and other retailers and office uses in downtown San Bernardino. Additionally, increasing congestion has significantly lowered the reliability of Omnitrans services in certain corridors at certain times of day, particularly in the East Valley where the system relies of a high number of route-to-route transfers. Finally, while Omnitrans is achieving its systemwide “pullout” goal (which measures missed trips due to personnel or mechanical reasons), any missed trip further erodes reliability and therefore ridership. The combination of decreasing ridership and increasing costs has led to a situation where Omnitrans is under threat of not meeting its State-mandated farebox recovery target of 20%, a situation that would exacerbate the current situation by endangering a key source of operating funds. Addressing the factors that have jeopardized achieving the mandated farebox recovery target will be a multi-year effort. This Short Range Transit Plan represents the first necessary step towards putting Omnitrans back on the road of increasing ridership and controlling costs. Reflecting the current financial situation, the plan presents a realistic, fiscally conservative scenario. First and foremost, it presents a series of service reductions and restructurings, and fare increases, aimed at not merely meeting the 20% farebox recovery ratio, but providing Omnitrans with a safety cushion to buffer against future cost spikes or ridership decreases, incrementally working towards a recovery ratio of 25% in the six-year timeframe of the Plan. The need to provide such a buffer effectively means that, using the conservative assumptions of the Plan, Omnitrans cannot be assumed to grow ridership until 2012, when the sbX Bus Rapid Transit system begins service. However, the Plan does provide some of the tools necessary to put Omnitrans once more on a healthy path of ridership growth. For example, while the recommended service reductions and restructuring will result in a shortterm drop in ridership, they will also free resources (buses and drivers), some of which can be redeployed to improve reliability in the corridors and times of day when this is an issue. If these strategies are successful, ridership will see an improvement. Also, in 2008 Omnitrans will undertake an update of its Strategic Plan which will look at all aspects of how Omnitrans conducts its business, with a view to revamping the organization to better utilize funding and resources. While this Short Range Transit Plan must be conservative and therefore cannot account for the potential cost savings from the Strategic Plan, it is likely that Omnitrans will be able to realize such savings, meaning that more resources can be put into new or expanded services. To this end, in the two Unconstrained Scenarios that are also a part of this Short Range Transit Plan, a menu of new services is provided. These include options such as reinstating the reduced services, further improvements in Omnitrans’ core system (aimed at providing more consistent headways and spans of service), pilot projects to serve emerging Transit-Oriented Development areas, the extension of service to new high-density areas, and the provision of “precursor” limited-stop services along the sbX and other future Bus Rapid Transit corridors. This Short Range Transit Plan therefore fulfills two key objectives – a short-term plan to put Omnitrans once again on a solid financial footing, and the long-range service concepts that provide a blueprint for growing ridership once the immediate challenges are overcome. July 11, 2007 i
Page 2 and 3: RESOLUTION NO. A RESOLUTION ADOPTIN
Page 4 and 5: CERTIFICATION The undersigned duly
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Short Range Transit Plan 2008-2013 - Omnitrans

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