Short Range Transit Plan 2008-2013 - Omnitrans

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IBI GROUP SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN REPORT OMNITRANS COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT & SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN 4.6 Community-Specific Effects of Economic Change on Population, Employment Growth and <strong>Transit</strong> Use The communities in San Bernardino have experienced different growth patterns over the last decade. Communities in the western portion of the County have grown faster than eastern communities. The City of San Bernardino, the traditional economic center, has maintained its primacy, but other communities (such as Ontario) have grown significantly over the past years. The following section provides information on the two most populous cities in the San Bernardino County, the Cities of San Bernardino and Ontario. For each city, population and employment growth trends will be examined. City of San Bernardino Even with faster growth rates in other cities and some local economic downturns, population and employment growth within San Bernardino are expected to continue at a steady pace. As Figure 4-10 illustrates, the population is projected to grow by nearly 5% during the ten-year period between 2005 (199,035) and 2015 (208,860) and by another 2.5% in following fifteen years to 2030. San Bernardino’s dominance in terms of residential and employment population will not change significantly over the period, but Ontario’s population – growing at a much faster rate – will surpass that of San Bernardino. Figure 4-10: City of San Bernardino Projected Population and Employment 250,000 200,000 199,035 207,021 208,860 210,672 212,404 214,069 150,000 100,000 88,791 99,337 110,056 120,965 131,943 143,045 50,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Employment Population Source: SCAG projections July 11, 2007 73
IBI GROUP SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN REPORT OMNITRANS COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT & SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN Employment Growth in San Bernardino Employment is anticipated to increase more rapidly than population in San Bernardino between 2005 and 2030. By 2015, the number of jobs in San Bernardino is anticipated to grow to more than 110,000, an increase of almost 24% from 2005. During this same period, population is expected to grow by only 5%. Growth in different industries is not identified as part of the projections provided through SCAG, and it is difficult to determine which industries will grow faster than others. Changes in the economy, shifts in land use patterns, and technological advances can all play a role in which industries will grow in the following years. Nonetheless, SCAG predicts that areas east of I-215 will have the highest concentration of population and jobs within the city. City of Ontario Ontario shows a more rapid growth in population rather than employment during the period between 2005 and 2030. Ontario is expected to surpass San Bernardino as the most populous city in the County by 2015. As Figure 4-11 illustrates, Ontario will have a population of more than 212,000 people in 2015 and over 305,000 in 2030. This represents an increase in population of 24% in 2015 and 78% in 2030. Possible reasons for this growth are the amount of land available for development and the city’s aggressive development efforts. Figure 4-11: City of Ontario Projected Population and Employment 350,000 300,000 305,509 250,000 244,977 275,873 200,000 212,734 150,000 100,000 171,154 85,536 180,059 97,366 109,637 122,204 134,897 147,785 50,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Employment Population Source: SCAG projections July 11, 2007 74
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RESOLUTION NO. A RESOLUTION ADOPTIN
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CERTIFICATION The undersigned duly
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IBI GROUP SHORT RANGE TRANSIT PLAN
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IBI GROUP 7. PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
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