Business Case for the SunShine CoaSt airport Master Plan

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Business Case for the Sunshine Coast Airport n Master Plan (November 2009) The TFI figures show that the SCA region experienced an average ■■ Australian and Sunshine Coast must prepare for a steady and rapid annual growth of 10.5 per cent, population growth. The domestic growth rate in passenger levels in demonstrating strength in the regional model used herein has elasticities coming years. In fact, when compared economy 7 . of 0.5 for each of the population to other airports around Australia, the growth rates. Sunshine Coast is among the fastest growing airports in the country. 03.5.2 Strong regional population growth ■■ Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross State Product Projected growth levels at other airports over this period are as follows: As outlined earlier, another key driver of passenger growth is the booming residential population growth of the (GSP) are both used in the model with elasticities of 1.0 and 0.3 respectively. area. The Sunshine Coast is one of the ■■ The airfare elasticity for Australia- Airport Average Growth Rate to 2027 fastest growing regions in Australia and is forecast to grow by 70 per cent to 500,000 residents by 2031. wide discounted fares is -0.5. 03.6 Conclusion Brisbane 5.0% Newcastle 4.9% Melbourne 4.5% Canberra 4.2% Sydney 3.9% Adelaide 3.5% Hobart 4.1% Sunshine Coast Airport 3.9% – current runway Sunshine Coast Airport 5.5% – new runway Table 3 Projected growth levels at airports around Australia (Source: Hobart Master Plan) 03.5 Key drivers of passenger growth 03.5.1 Strong regional economic growth Along with much of South-East Queensland, the Sunshine Coast’s economy grew significantly in recent years. A study of the region found the Sunshine Coast’s GRP was estimated to have been $8.9 billion in 2007-08, accounting for 4.9 per cent of the Queensland economy. In the five years prior to that, the 03.5.3 Discounted air travel Discounted airfares provided by low cost carrier airlines have stimulated growth in the Sunshine Coast leisure orientated market in recent years. The current mix of passengers consists of 40 per cent residents and 60 per cent visitors. The main reason for travel to and from this port is to visit friends and relatives (45 per cent), followed by holiday travel and business related travel. The TFI study estimated that about 50 per cent of the passenger growth at the SCA over the last decade was driven by population and economic factors. A further 16 to 20 per cent of passenger growth is directly attributable to the reduction in airfare costs. This remaining one-third of the growth is attributable to other factors, mainly capacity developments. Based on this analysis and modelling TFI has developed elasticities to link drivers to passenger traffic. Several models were developed and are used to develop projections with the macro analysis using the following drivers: The SCA is already one of the busiest regional aviation hubs in the country, proving the need for an airport and its associated services already exists. For the reasons outlined in the chapter above, including population, economic and discount travel growth, demand for these services is likely to rise in coming years, underlining the critical economic significance of the proposed development. As the region continues to expand, so too does the need for an airport to adequately service residents, businesses and visitors alike. 7 Sunshine Coast Regional Council – 2008 Economic Pulse – Sunshine Coast 14
Business Case for the Sunshine Coast Airport n Master Plan (November 2009) 04 Problems facing Sunshine Coast Airport 04.1 Background of constraints Operational constraints on the Sunshine Coast Airport have long been identified through a series of successive Master Plans. These constraints include, but are not limited to, runway capacity (length and width), terminal capacity, safety and noise. These constraints in turn combine to further limit operational capacity, including the airport’s ability to handle increased freight loads and to share interconnectivity traffic with nearby airports, including Brisbane and the Gold Coast. When combined, these constraints mean the SCRC cannot provide certainty for continued jet operations to service the Sunshine Coast catchment area. 04.2 Timeline of Master Plans and major events: 1982 and 1985 Plans >> Restrictions for future expansion to the existing runway 18/36 were first identified in 1982 and again in the 1985 Master Plan, which found: “The maximum length available for an extended runway is 2,080 metres. This is determined by the availability of land and obstruction clearances to the south. This compares to 2,500 metres for a new runway… then it is not recommended that further funding be expended in an 18/36 alignment.” 1983 Upgrade >> The runway was subject to an interim upgrade in 1983 to accommodate the urgent need to move from Fokker Friendship (F27) services that were not adequately servicing the region. The capacity of the runway was increased to enable jet operations on the current runway. A decision was delayed on an east/west runway pending the outcome of a flood study for the area at the time. However, it was noted at the time that: “The opportunity exists with an east/west 13/31 runway to plan for a regional airport with minimal effect on residential areas and with excellent approach and take- off flight paths which are far superior to those for a north/south 36/18 alignment.” 1985 Flood Study >> The flood study was concluded in 1985 and found “the east/ west runway has a negligible effect on flood levels on the Maroochy River Flood Plain”. 1987 Plan >> The 1987 Master Plan recommended the current interim runway upgrade be retained until passengers reached the 200,000 per annum mark. 1993 >> Significantly, in 1993 the main runway was strengthened to accommodate Boeing 737s under dispensation from the Department of Aviation. 1994 Plan >> This Master Plan delayed further consideration of the new east/west runway due to revised passenger forecasts that proved to be extremely pessimistic. 1998 Plan >> This Master Plan stated the current configuration could accommodate current passengers forecasts until 2013. 2007 Plan >> This latest Master Plan identified several options for the development of the airport, including the extension of runway 18/36 and the development of the new east-west runway. There was significant community objection to the extension of runway 18/36 with overwhelming support for the development of the new east-west runway, from a longterm perspective. 15
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FIGURE 2-3 HISTORIC AND FORECAST AN
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FIGURE 2-6 HISTORIC AND FORECAST AN
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2.5 Peak Stand Demand Peak stand de
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FIGURE 3-1 RPT APRON LAYOUT 3.3.2 G
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4 Passenger Terminal 4.1 Terminal T
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FIGURE 4-1 2020 TERMINAL LAYOUT CON
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access road is constructed the airp
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6 Runways 6.1 Existing Facilities S
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The public consultation which accom
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7 Taxiways 7.1 Runway 18/36 Taxiway
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Sunshine Coast Airport has recently
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FIGURE 8-1 AVIATION SUPPORT FACILIT
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9 Master Plan 9.1 2020 Master Plan
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10 Environmental Impacts 10.1 Aircr
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Arrivals, departures and training c
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♦ Figure 10-2 : 2025 New Runway 1
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10.1.8 Flight Path Movement Chart I
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Boronia rosmarinifolia Eucalyptus c
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FIGURE 10-8 OBSTACLE LIMITATION SUR
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Development Commence detailed studi
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Appendices Appendix A - Schedule of
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Date Organisation Position 28-04-05
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Appendix B - SCA Public Participati
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A media relations campaign was also
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appendix b Project Implementation S
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New Runway Project Strategy Documen
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New Runway Project Strategy Glossar
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New Runway Project Strategy Table o
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New Runway Project Strategy Executi
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New Runway Project Strategy Milesto
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New Runway Project Strategy Feasibi
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New Runway Project Strategy Project
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New Runway Project Strategy 1. Intr
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New Runway Project Strategy 2.4.2.
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New Runway Project Strategy obligat
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New Runway Project Strategy 2.10. F
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New Runway Project Strategy 3. New
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New Runway Project Strategy 3.6. As
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New Runway Project Strategy 3.9.1.
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New Runway Project Strategy 4. Stak
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New Runway Project Strategy 5. Feas
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New Runway Project Strategy 6. Work
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New Runway Project Strategy 7. Proj
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New Runway Project Strategy 8. Proj
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New Runway Project Strategy Council
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New Runway Project Strategy o New b
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New Runway Project Strategy 9.4. Fo
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New Runway Project Strategy 10.7. R
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New Runway Project Strategy Vol X.0
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New Runway Project Strategy 12. Pro
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New Runway Project Strategy 13.5. R
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New Runway Project Strategy preferr
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Appendix 1 to Sunshine Coast Airpor
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Sunshine Coast Airport Traffic Fore
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10. Glossary.......................
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2 2. Sunshine Coast Airport Traffic
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4 Table 2.1: Sunshine Coast Airport
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6 2.3 Current Airline Services As a
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8 3. Forecast Approach & Review of
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Australian aviation has not felt th
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In its review of possible strongly
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14 • Qantas Group firm orders red
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16 • Melbourne-Shanghai services
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In the IVS and NVS the ‘Sunshine
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20 • The Sunshine Coast’s labou
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22 5. Forecast Scenarios and Outcom
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24 o New Asian route(s) added leadi
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Figure 5.1 presents the passenger m
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28 6. Busy Hour Analysis 6.1 Review
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30 Seats/Aircraft: Table 6.3: Busy
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32 Table 7.2: Sunshine Coast Gross
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34 8.2 Current Airline Routes and F
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36 9. Attachment 3: Potential Impac
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38 10. Glossary Data Sourced from t
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40 DISCLAIMER The Forecasts describ
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Sunshine Coast Airport Airport Mast
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1 Executive Summary
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Executive Summary The types of econ
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2 Background
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Background 2.2 Contract requirement
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Background Sunshine Coast Airport P
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Approach and methodology 3.1 Overvi
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Approach and methodology 3.2 Method
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Approach and methodology Components
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Approach and methodology Components
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Approach and methodology 3.4.4 Othe
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Results and discussion 4.1 Overview
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Results and discussion 10,000 Passe
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Results and discussion PV Revenue -
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The NPVs for each of the precincts
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Results and discussion 4.4 Economic
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Results and discussion PV monetised
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Results and discussion Indirect emp
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Results and discussion 4.5 Consolid
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Results and discussion 4.5.1 Result
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Results and discussion The overall
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Results and discussion Economic ind
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Results and discussion Alternative
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5 Conclusions and recommendations
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Appendices
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Appendix B Key assumptions NOT FOR
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Appendix D Demand Summary NOT FOR P
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pwc.com.au © 2009 PricewaterhouseC
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0 2.5 5 10 15 20 Kilometers 1 cm =
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appendix f Infrastructure Australia
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INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIA REFORM AND
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ü Build on Australias global compe
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Stage 1: Goal Definition national a
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Stage 1: Goal Definition which is i
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Stage 1: Goal Definition and operat
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Stage 2 and 3: Problem Identificati
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Stage 2 and 3: Problem Identificati
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Stage 4: Problem Analysis Outline t
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Stage 5: Option Generation The Bris
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Stage 5: Option Generation Convenie
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Stage 5: Option Generation vii. inc
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Stage 5: Option Generation charges
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INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIA REFORM AND
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DETAILED APPRAISAL This section set
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Cost Estimation The capital and ope
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A risk assessment should be underta
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Non-Monetised Benefits and Costs Th
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Discounted airfares provided by low
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30m wide runway. SCA is one of four
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SCA is included in the regional pla
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SCRC’s draft economic development
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Key directions to guide the prepara
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It is estimated that the current te
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· $143m for other Master Plan proj
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Operating costs have not been indep
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The number of passenger hours saved
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Airline savings are calculated usin
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Incremental expenditure is calculat
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23 | P a g e KEY ASSUMPTIONS UNDERP
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Appraisal Summary Table 2 MONETISED
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Incremental returns from leased pre
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Savings from avoided out-bound dela
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As noted above, all outputs for the
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6 | P a g e Airline savings from av
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Sensitivity test # Variation Benefi
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Appraisal Summary Table 4 NON-MONET
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Appraisal Summary Table 5 INFORMATI
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DELIVERABILITY ASSESSMENT Criteria
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DELIVERABILITY ASSESSMENT time, as
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DELIVERABILITY ASSESSMENT 5.Does th
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