Business Case for the SunShine CoaSt airport Master Plan

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Table 4.2: Sunshine Coast Estimated/Forecast Resident Population
Resident Population June Each Year (‘000s Persons)
2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
2001 to
2008
CAGR
2008 to
2016
2016 to
2031
Sunshine Coast
Actual 313 3.4%
Projections
Medium 340 381 421 461 501 2.5% 1.8%
Low 333 368 400 431 461 2.0% 1.5%
High 349 400 451 504 559 3.1% 2.3%
Queensland
Actual 4,294 2.4%
Projections
Medium 4,568 5,040 5,479 5,884 6,274 2.0% 1.5%
Low 4,483 4,863 5,199 5,496 5,768 1.6% 1.1%
High 4,673 5,280 5,869 6,438 7,008 2.6% 1.9%
Australia
Actual 21,432 1.4%
Projections
Medium 22,319 23,967 25,617 27,237 28,786 1.4% 1.2%
Low 22,190 23,530 24,792 25,972 27,060 1.2% 0.9%
High 22,447 24,423 26,529 28,723 30,945 1.6% 1.6%
Sources: Queensland Government, Population Projections to 2056: Queensland and Statistical Divisions, 3rd edition, 2008; ABS
Publication, 3222.0 Population Projections, Australia Table A9, Series A, B, C.
4.4 Domestic Airline Costs and Airfares
It is difficult to establish an appropriate airfares series to apply to airports such as the SCA.
TFI has reviewed ABS CPI data for main capital cities and for travel costs. TFI has also
collated airfare index data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional
Economics (BITRE). In its modelling TFI has found the BITRE discounted airfare series is
most useful in explaining growth on leisure-oriented airline routes such as those to SCA.
After real (inflation-adjusted) reductions in the national airfare index of 3.6% in 2007/08 and
16.5% in 2008/09, TFI assumes a modest turnaround to a positive growth of 1.5% in 2009/10,
1.0% in 2010/11 and, consistent with assumed economic recovery, increases of 4.0% in both
2011/12 and 2012/13. From 2013/14 TFI has assumed modest increases of 0.5% per year.