Business Case for the SunShine CoaSt airport Master Plan

o Rising default rates on subprime mortgages in the US created an environment
of significant turbulence in global financial markets from August 2007 and
exerted downward pressure on US and world economic growth into 2008,
leading to the GFC by 2009.
• Wars, Coups and Terrorist Attacks:
o The devastating effects of the September 11th terrorist attacks in the United
States.
o The Bali bombings in October 2002, and again in October 2005.
o The war against Iraq commenced in March 2003, with Australia as one of the
three members of the allied forces.
o Train and bus bombings in London in July 2005, averted threat at Heathrow
Airport in August 2006 and attempted bombings in London and Glasgow in
June 2007.
o Middle East conflict in July-August 2006, military coups in Thailand in
September 2006 and in Fiji in December 2006.
o Demonstrations close Bangkok airport, and terrorist attacks occur in Mumbai,
in November 2008.
o Political unrest in Thailand and Fiji in April 2009, and bomb attacks in Jakarta
in July.
• Health Crises:
o The impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) from 2003.
o Outbreak of Influenza A(H1N1), Swine Flu, from April 2009.
• Natural Disasters:
o The tsunami which devastated the coasts of Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and
the Maldives in December 2004.
• Airline Collapses:
o The collapse of Ansett Australia (and its regional subsidiaries) in September
2001 and the near collapse of Air New Zealand.
Throughout all of these, often dramatic, developments airline traffic growth has fallen but then
recovered. The key is to anticipate the uncertainty and to adopt appropriate forecasting and
monitoring systems.
3.2.1 Global Financial Crisis
The GFC has created a substantial economic downturn with most developed countries in
recession. The depth of the downturn and its recovery path remain highly uncertain.
The impact of the GFC on aviation demand has been sudden, sharp and widespread. The
spread of the H1N1 influenza virus (Swine Flu) has added further uncertainty to an already
confused picture.
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