Australia Yearbook - 2001

1014 Year Book Australia 2001
A century of Australia’s balance of payments performance
Official estimates of Australia’s balance of
payments were first published in the 1931 edition
(No. 34) of the Official Year Book of the
Commonwealth of Australia for the period
1928–29 to 1930–31. No official estimates exist
for earlier periods for the accounts as a whole.
However, a range of estimates have been
compiled by various researchers that can be used
to broadly compare Australia’s current account
performance at the start of the century with the
position for 1999–2000. In this article the
estimates for the current account for calendar
year 1901, from Chapter 11 by Alan Lougheed in
W. Vamprey (ed.) Australians: Historical
Statistics (Fairfax, Syme & Weldon Associates,
Broadway, New South Wales, 1987), are
compared with the 1999–2000 estimates in the
June 2000 issue of Balance of Payments and
International Investment Position, Australia
(5302.0).
The balance on current account for the year
ended 31 December 1901 was a deficit of £2.3m
and represented –1.0% of Australia’s Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) (table 30.11). For the
year ended 30 June 2000, the current account
balance was a deficit of $33.7b and represented
–5.4% of GDP. The major change in the
composition of the current account (as a
proportion of GDP) over the century is the
decline in the share of exports of goods—down
from 22% at the start to 16% by 1999–2000. At
the same time the exports of services have risen
from a 1% share in 1901 to account for nearly
5% in 1999–2000. Imports of goods have
increased their share from –19% to –23%, while
the GDP share of imports of services has also
risen (from –2% to –5%) over the same period.
Interestingly, the net income deficit has
declined in significance over the past century,
from –5.2% of GDP in 1901 to –3.0% in
1999–2000. The deficit on income was about
–5% of GDP up until 1935–36 when rapid
growth in GDP and strong trade performances
leading up to World War II pushed the ratio
down to about –3%. It fell further to about –2%
in the early 1960s, and stayed low until the
accumulating deficits since the mid 1970s drove
the ratio up to around –4% in the mid 1990s.
The following detail on the goods trade in 1901
should be used with care. Goods imported into
one State and trans-shipped to another were
excluded from imports. The amounts involved
are not known but could well be as much as 5%
of imports; while estimated at about £1.8m in
Vamprey, they have not been included in the
balance of payments for 1901. A similar problem
also affected goods trans-shipped from the State
of production to another State for export, which
are excluded from total Australian exports in
1901. However, the problem for exports is likely
to be larger than for imports due to the wider
distribution of agricultural and mining
production for export than applies to the
population and industry distribution for the
trans-shipment of imports. For particular export
and import commodities the undercoverage
may be quite significant. Other coverage and
valuation problems also affect the 1901
estimates.
In 1901, recorded goods credits were £48.8m.
Rural goods accounted for £26.2m or 54% of
total goods credits, with wool being the largest
single contributor at £15.2m or 31% of total
goods credits. Non-rural goods (including ships’
stores) accounted for £9.1m or 19% of total
goods credits, with mining at £5.4m (11%) and
other exports and re-exports at £3.7m (8%).
Gold exports were £13.5m (28%).
By 1999–2000, the composition of exports had
changed significantly. Non-rural exports were
$66.3b or 68% of total goods credits. The largest
contributors were metal ores and minerals, and
other manufactures, both accounting for 12% of
total goods credits. However, fuel exports had
risen to 18% of exports compared with
negligible levels in 1901. Similarly, elaborately
transformed manufactured exports had risen
from negligible levels to about a quarter of all
exports of goods by 1999–2000. Rural goods
accounted for 24% of total goods credits, with
cereal grains and cereal preparations, and meat
and meat preparations, the largest two
contributors, both accounting for 5% of total
goods credits. Gold exports and goods for
processing (mainly gold) were 7%.
In 1901, goods debits were £38.0m. As with
exports, the shift in imports composition is
away from primary inputs and towards finished
goods, particularly capital goods, as well as
towards fuels. Imports of apparel, textiles and
yarn accounted for the largest proportion of
goods imports in 1901, at 29%, compared with