enseignement de base au niger :quel bilan - CONFEMEN
enseignement de base au niger :quel bilan - CONFEMEN
enseignement de base au niger :quel bilan - CONFEMEN
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ANNEXE V : Modèles explicatifs du score <strong>de</strong> fin d’année <strong>au</strong><br />
CM1<br />
1. Régression sur le score initial<br />
Modèle V.1<br />
reg STFIN5FM STINI5FM , cluster(NUMECOLE)<br />
Regression with robust standard errors Number of obs = 1503<br />
F( 1, 118) = 169.98<br />
Prob > F = 0.0000<br />
R-squared = 0.3223<br />
Number of clusters (NUMECOLE) = 119 Root MSE = .82351<br />
------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
| Robust<br />
STFIN5FM | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]<br />
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------<br />
STINI5FM | .5677012 .0435436 13.04 0.000 .481473 .6539294<br />
_cons | 8.96e-10 .0505752 0.00 1.000 -.1001526 .1001526<br />
------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
Le score initial explique 32% <strong>de</strong> la variance du score final.<br />
2. Rajoutons les caractéristiques élèves<br />
Modèle V.2<br />
. reg STFIN5FM STINI5FM FILLE AGEPLUS REDOUB14 REDAN5 ENFTCONFIE ZEROPARALPHA<br />
NIVEAUVIE1 NIVEAUVIE3 AIDE LIV_FR LIV_MT, cluster(NUMECOLE)<br />
Regression with robust standard errors Number of obs = 1503<br />
F( 12, 118) = 20.46<br />
Prob > F = 0.0000<br />
R-squared = 0.3290<br />
Number of clusters (NUMECOLE) = 119 Root MSE = .82242<br />
------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
| Robust<br />
STFIN5FM | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]<br />
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------<br />
STINI5FM | .5530002 .0459893 12.02 0.000 .4619288 .6440716<br />
FILLE | .0428588 .0513749 0.83 0.406 -.0588775 .1445952<br />
AGEPLUS | .0254097 .0769736 0.33 0.742 -.1270189 .1778384<br />
REDOUB14 | -.0857509 .0505721 -1.70 0.093 -.1858974 .0143955<br />
REDAN5 | -.0198007 .0744921 -0.27 0.791 -.1673153 .127714<br />
ENFTCONFIE | .0691759 .0613149 1.13 0.262 -.0522444 .1905961<br />
ZEROPARALPHA | -.0284954 .0561578 -0.51 0.613 -.1397032 .0827123<br />
NIVEAUVIE1 | .0215041 .0806721 0.27 0.790 -.1382486 .1812569<br />
NIVEAUVIE3 | -.018953 .0832994 -0.23 0.820 -.1839086 .1460025<br />
AIDE | -.0775989 .0479293 -1.62 0.108 -.1725119 .0173142<br />
LIV_FR | .1084268 .0557595 1.94 0.054 -.0019922 .2188458<br />
LIV_MT | .0723282 .086695 0.83 0.406 -.0993514 .2440078<br />
_cons | -.0021601 .0859476 -0.03 0.980 -.1723598 .1680396<br />
------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
Ce modèle ne contient pas <strong>de</strong> multi colinéarités ; <strong>de</strong> plus, il n’y a pas <strong>de</strong> modalité trop<br />
faiblement représentée. Nous allons retenir les variables <strong>de</strong> ce modèle pour le modèle final.<br />
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