Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

The Financial Times - February 10, 1993 ~
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Iraq muddies water of
Turkey-Syria dam deal
IRAQ'S recent threat to
take legal action against
foreign contractors on a
!l'urkish dam project was more
than just another warning shot
across the bows of Ankara's
multi-billion-dollar south-east
Anatolian project. The outburst
is seen as an indication
of growing concern in Baghdad
at thepossibility of a water
deal between Turkey and Syria
which could leave Iraq high
and dry.
Iraq's anxiety follows the
recent accord signed in Damascus
committing Turkey and
Syria to find a "rmal solution"
to the allocation of the Euphrates
river this year. Some diplomats
in Ankara discount the
move as yet another "agr.eement
to disagree". However,
for both countries, there seems
to be ample reason to push for
a more permanent settlement
to this long riparian dispute.
Ankara's control of the
Euphrates and the Tigris rivets,
both of which rise in its
central highlands and flow into
the Gulf, has long soured relations
with its Arab neighbours.
Turkey's irrigation project,
known as Gap, has been the
main bone of contention - in
John Murray
Brown on
threats over
Euphrates
~ect
particular, its plans to irrigate
1.7m hectares along the Syrian
and Iraqi borders.
Turkey has long resisted
calls for a more comprehensive
solution, reluctant to become
embroiled in the disputes of
Syria and Iraq, which in the
mid-I97Os came close to open
conflict.
With Iraq's continuing international
isolation, any deal
with Syria would undermine
the case for an internationally
ratified agreement on the
water issue.
Modest progress on the security
front helped pave the way
for the Damascus accord, in
particular Syria's assurances
to curb Turkish Kw-d separatists
on its territory.
There was also a technical
reason for the meeting. In 1987
Turkey agreed to guarantee to
Syria a discharge of 500cu m a
second where the Euphrates
crosses their border. Under
that agreement, Turkey was
committed to review the water
allOcation, once the reservoir
behind the vast $4bn (£2.6bn)
Ataturk dam was filled. That
day has arrived.
But more than that, western
diplomats say Turkey's decision
to push for a deal is a
measure of the desperate rman.
cial constraints facing the Gap
project. Hitherto, the World
Bank and other donors have
refrained from supporting the
project directly because of the
outstanding water issue.
According to western offi.
cials, only if Turkey solicits
international finance can it
afford to invest in the more
costly water conserving equipment,
an issue vital for the
downstream users. That will
only happen if a solution can
be found to the dispute.
Donors now believe the day
of financial reckoning is fast
approaching. The Gap has
already consumed $9bn, much
of it financed from the state
budget. By next century, when
the irrigation infrastructure
and the 21 dams and 19 power
plants are in place, the project
will have cost a heady $32bn.
As Turkey prepares to irri.
gate the first hectares on the
Harran plain close to the Syrian
border in May, the need to
address the issue has acquired
a new urgency. Turkey will
want to reassure the Syrians of
continued co-operation,
although the Turks seem
unlikely to agree to Syria's
demands to increase the water
supply.
Iraq's latest snipe may thus
cause a few rumed feathers for
the commercial banks and
export credit agencies now
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SYRIA
being tion, only hydro-electric generation.
approached to finance
the DM2bn (£833m) Birecik
project.
The consortium led by Philip
Holzmann of Germany has
been quick to point out that
there are no plans for irriga-'
In addition, the Turks
argue that Iraq has already
given implicit approval to the
project, having signed up to a
separate plan linking the
power grids of Turkey and its
Arab neighbours: the Birecik
plant is the first stage of this
five-country project and would
transmit power to the Syrian
city of Aleppo.
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Iraq's concern over Birecik
may still prove premature.
Hermes, the German export
credit agency, is understood to
have second thoughts about
supporting a project which the
Turks seem intent on financing
using the more complex and
largely untried technique of
Build Operate and Transfer.
Under such an arrangement,
the contractor owns and
finances the project, recovering
its cost by selling its product,
in this case electricity, back to
the public utility. The public
outburst from the Iraqis can
only further deepen the misgivings
of the lenders.
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