Between the devil and the deep blue sea - University of Canterbury

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to the possibility of war, Snijders suggested the telegram was a warning to keep careful
watch on the situation in Germany, and Hubert van Tuyll used another source to claim that
"api api" referred to an impending German mobilisation. 12
Again, only speculation is possible regarding the timing and actual meaning of the
telegram. It is unknown what triggered Ie Roy to send the message so early in the July
crisis, hours before the Serbian reply was despatched, before any signs of German
mobilisation were visible, and before Russia declared its support for Serbia. 13 Van Tuyll
provided some conceivable scenarios, including the possibility that Ie Roy witnessed early
signs of German pre-mobilisation, that he intercepted sensitive information sent via the
telegraph station, or that he was notified by an informant. 14 Whatever Ie Roy discovered,
and however he obtained the infonnation, must have been so pressing that he (or his
informant) believed that whatever happened in the Balkans, and regardless of Serbia's
answer to Austria-Hungary, there was a strong chance of it turning into a conflict involving
Germany. Le Roy would not have sent the message unless he believed the Netherlands
could possibly be at risk. "Api api" could not have referred to a localised Balkan conflict
and would, almost certainly, have meant some form of German preparation for war because
a conflict involving Austria-Hungary in the Balkans presented little direct threat to the
Netherlands. The only land-based continental power of serious concern to the neutral was
its eastern neighbour. Of course, it is possible that Ie Roy acted on a hunch, or received a
vague but unsettling message.
No doubt, the telegram warned the Netherlands that the situation in Europe was
critical. Yet given its very early timing, its author is unlikely to have presaged inevitable
conflict, unless he had infonnation on German intentions on exacerbating the crisis. The
events that were pivotal to the outbreak of the Great War - namely Serbian rejection of the
Austria-Hungarian ultimatum, Russian support of Serbia, and German responses to both
these events - did not occur until after Ie Roy wired "api api" to Forbes W els. Most likely,
the telegram was meant to place the Netherlands on higher aleli: the situation in the Balkans
was more dangerous than many initially assumed. Apparent confirmation is provided by the
12 Velzen, "Toelichting op telegram 'Api Api"'; Snijders "Mobilisatie-Herinneringen 1914 - 1918 no. 16" (both in
SMG/DC, "Mobilisatieverslag" 91A/3); Tuyll, "Inside Knowledge" no page numbers, f11 17.
13 See: Appendix 4, pp. 453 - 454.
14 Tuyll, "Inside Knowledge"; Tuyll, The Netherlands and World War I pp. 65, 67, 69.