Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

CHApTER FIvE
According
to these data,
the MDG1 target
to halve the
proportion of
people living in
extreme poverty
by 2015 will be met
at the global level.
But if China’s
extraordinary
success is factored
out, it is unlikely
that developing
countries will
achieve this target.
68
according to these data, the mDG1 target to
halve the proportion of people living in extreme
poverty by 2015 will be met at the global level. but
if china’s extraordinary success is factored out, it is
unlikely that developing countries will achieve this
target (ravallion, 2012). Indeed, only four of the 33
lDcs for which data are available are likely to do
so (unctaD, 2011: 3). 49
If the $2 a day poverty line is used, however, the
fall in poverty is much less striking. Indeed, there
is considerable ‘bunching’ of incomes between
the two poverty lines: the number of people living
between them almost doubled from 648 million to
1.18 billion between 1981 and 2008. this suggests
that these people remain vulnerable to becoming
extremely poor. 50
Source: PovcalNet, 2012
EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013
In 2008, 96% of the 1.3 billion people who
remained extremely poor lived in East asia, South
asia and SSa (chen and ravallion, 2012). owing
to the size of the populations of china and India,
almost half of all global poverty is concentrated
in those two countries according to 2008 data. In
that year, there were more people living in extreme
poverty in India than in the whole of SSa (loewe
and rippin, 2012). according to the $2 a day
measure, 2.5 billion people remain poor, or over
40% of the population of developing countries. the
pace of poverty reduction has been dramatic, but
further efforts are clearly needed. particular groups
of countries such as the lDcs need continuing
attention. the gap between fragile and conflictaffected
states and other developing countries is
also widening (World bank, 2011). any successor to
Figure 5.2 Evolution of depth of poverty, $1.25 a day poverty line, 1990–2008
-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2
Poverty Gap Sq. Poverty Gap
East Asia and Pacific
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
Europe and Central Asia
49 unctaD (2011), on the basis of data from Karshenas (2010), predicts that 439 million people in lDcs will be extremely poor in 2015, as
opposed to 255 million if mDG1 were met. For an analysis of how mDG targets are ‘unfair’ to poorer countries, see Easterly (2009) and Klasen
(forthcoming). the 4 lDcs that are on track to meet mDG1 are cambodia, laos, lesotho and Yemen (unctaD, 2010: 38)
50 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/IntpovcalnEt/resources/Global_poverty_update_2012_02-29-12.pdf.
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