Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

Figure 4.1 Changing global power 2013–2040: Europe, the USA and the BRICS
20.7 17.6 13.7 20.5 18.5 15.9 2.9 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.6 13.3 14.8 18.4 8.7 10.3 14.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.2
0.5 0.5 0.5
Europe US Germany United
Kingdom
2013 2020 2040
Source: Authors’ representation, data from The International Futures (IFs) model. 42 National power is represented as a percentage
of the total power available in the global system.
non-state actors are also becoming more
prominent. the power of transnational corporations
(tncs) and banks is well known, even if the precise
dimensions of their influence over governments in
many countries are sometimes unclear to the outside
observer. Energy, finance, mining, pharmaceuticals,
chemicals, shipping and mechanised agriculture
have all been dominated for decades by large
tncs, many of which have increased their size and
influence during the current global economic crisis.
Since the 1990s, the global civil society movement has
increased its profile and has been a prominent critic
of large international business. In the development
field, big business and civil society overlap in the
charitable activities of contemporary philanthropists
such as bill Gates and mo Ibrahim. at the same
time, it is important not to overstate the influence
of non-state actors. the rise of the brIcS suggests
France China India Brazil Russia South
Africa
that the state is likely to remain firmly in charge for
the foreseeable future. Indeed, many of the major
emerging powers in international development are
state-owned enterprises (SoEs), whose independence
from political influence is far from clear.
changes are also occurring in the field of
development policy. many developing countries
have been growing faster than the mature
industrialised countries for several decades. this is
not just an asian or latin american phenomenon:
since the turn of the century, six of the world’s ten
fastest-growing countries have been african. Some
observers are already starting to compare the
fastest-growing ‘african lions’ with the ‘asian tigers’
(the Economist, 2011). this does not necessarily
mean that most people’s incomes will rise or that
developing countries will ‘catch up’ with the West,
42 the IFs modelling system (these data are from version 6.54) was initially developed by barry b. Hughes and aggregates demographic, economic,
energy, agricultural, socio-political, and environmental power for 183 countries interacting in the global system. It is based at the Frederick S.
pardee center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, university of Denver, www.ifs.du.edu.
poSt-2015: Global actIon For an IncluSIvE anD SuStaInablE FuturE
Non-state actors
are becoming
more prominent.
At the same time,
the rise of the
BRICS suggests
that the state is
likely to remain
firmly in charge
for the foreseeable
future.
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