Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

CHApTER nInE
In 2010, South–
North and South–
South migration
was broadly
similar
(74 million versus
73 million).
172
Figure 9.1 International migrants by origin and destination, 1990–2010
Millions
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
North to South
North to North
Source: UNDESA, 2012
0
1990 2000 2010
South to South
South to North
risen, particularly from asia to the middle East and
within asia (castles and miller, 2009).
any post-2015 development framework will
need to take into account new factors influencing
migration. For instance, environmental change will
affect the economic, social and political motives for
migration (Foresight, 2011). In addition, estimates
suggest that the labour force in developing countries
will increase from 2.4 billion in 2005 to 3 billion in
2020 and to 3.6 billion in 2040. With employment
expected to stagnate in many less developed regions,
often due to the impact of intensive agriculture and
industrial restructuring, the growing labour force
is likely to result in rising unemployment and may
widen the economic gap between richer and poorer
EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013
countries. this will lead to a growing demand
for access to labour markets in richer countries
(Khoser, 2010:310) even though unemployment
has risen in oEcD countries following the global
economic crisis. at the same time, changes in the
global economy could mean that countries that
are currently poorer may be competing for labour
with today’s richer countries in the next 20–30
years. china, for example, is likely to want to attract
international migrants given that its population is
ageing and its labour force is beginning to decline,
while its economy is growing. countries in the
americas, asia, Europe, north africa and elsewhere
are reaching fertility rates of zero population growth,
and so will face population ageing and declining
workforces within the next ten to 20 years.