Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

accumulation patterns (from 35% of GDp in 2009
to 61% in 2025) and the respective offset in the uSa
(where net liabilities will rise to 69% of GDp by 2025).
Japan and the middle East will also account for fairly
large positive investment positions. nonetheless,
china’s current account surplus has been shrinking
since 2007 – from 10% to 2.8% of GDp in 2011 –
which raises some questions about the likelihood of
these trends.
rbSc (2012) argues that FDI flows will grow four
times faster than global GDp by 2014. although not
providing longer-term forecasts, the study argues
that these are likely to grow at a higher rate than
global GDp. It is expected that countries such as
china and India will ‘catch up’ with industrialised
countries by 2030 in terms of inward and outward
FDI. Despite a likely increase in nominal terms, the
share of global FDI in industrialised countries will
continue to decline by 2030 – it was 83% in 1990 and
51% in 2009. therefore, less developed countries
will be the main recipients of FDI by 2030, with the
brIcs (brazil, russia, India and china) likely to
become the most attractive destinations, partly due
to growth prospects and resource wealth. India is
expected to catch up with china, possibly receiving
about 70% of china’s FDI inflows by 2014. there
will also be greater FDI in the poorest countries,
especially those that are rich in natural resources
or have abundant labour. migrant remittances and
oDa are expected to remain important sources of
foreign income, although these trends are difficult
to predict.
6.2.4 Employment
Employment has become a key policy issue for
all countries, especially in the continuing global
economic crisis and highlighted in the 2011 arab
Spring.
low real-wage growth in more advanced
economies partly contributed to the global
economic crisis (since it was coupled with easy
credit it led to over-borrowing), while high youth
unemployment played a role in the arab Spring.
although employment was prominent in the
discourse on development policy during the 1960s
and 1970s, it then lost ground to other priorities
(thorbecke, 2006). the prevailing economic
doctrine since the 1980s was that economic growth
would inevitably lead to the creation of more and
better job opportunities. as experiences in africa
and asia attest, this is not necessarily the case.
Employment issues are likely to remain on the
policy agenda for some time to come. this is partly
due to future demographic trends, the impact of
technological advances on labour demand, and the
widening gap between capital and labour earnings
– which underlie mounting income inequalities. In
addition, it is crucial to achieve better employment
in order to ensure that economic performance raises
living standards and thus reduces poverty (World
bank, 2012). this presents a range of challenges.
While unemployment and skill mismatches are
perhaps more pronounced in richer countries,
underemployment and precarious work are key
concerns in the poorest countries.
the broad economic trends described earlier,
such as the pace and type of economic growth,
will crucially affect global employment prospects.
However, since employment trends are quite
difficult to predict, forecasts are usually made
only for a few years ahead. overall, employment
growth is expected to remain subdued in most
parts of the world until 2016 (Ilo, 2012a). While
employment growth rates have broadly remained
positive during the continuing global economic
crisis – with the exception of some oEcD countries
– these are likely to be lower than 2002–2007 rates.
For instance, employment is expected to grow by
about 1.3%, down from the pre-crisis level of 1.8%.
East asia, the middle East and north africa will
be far from reaching previous growth rates – 0.3%,
2.5% and 2.3% in the period 2014–2016 versus 1.2%,
4.5% and 3.4% respectively in the period 2002–2007,
which could lead to significant social and economic
poSt-2015: Global actIon For an IncluSIvE anD SuStaInablE FuturE
Employment
issues are likely
to remain on the
policy agenda
for some time
to come.
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