Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

mortality, and clean water and sanitation. For three
of these (income poverty, gender parity in primary
education, and access to safe drinking water),
progress at the global level has been sufficient to
meet the targets. three could still be met (nutrition,
primary education completion and child mortality),
although one (maternal mortality) is lagging very
far behind the target (Kenny and Sumner, 2011). at
the national level, half of all countries will meet the
targets on income poverty, education, gender parity
in education and clean water and sanitation, while a
quarter to a third will meet the targets for nutrition,
child mortality and maternal mortality.
1.1.2 Global and regional progress
Income poverty target
Extreme income poverty has fallen, with the
proportion of people living on less than $1.25 per
day declining from 43.1% in 1990 to 22.4% in 2008
(table 1.1). the strongest progress was in East
asia, largely due to china’s success in reducing
poverty. Despite the SSa average, a few african
countries seem to be on track to halve poverty by
2015 – including Ethiopia, Ghana, Senegal and
uganda. In addition, several african countries have
achieved considerable absolute progress, although
they will not reach the relative target due to their
lower starting points (Easterly, 2009). nonetheless,
in SSa the absolute number of people living on less
than $1.25 a day increased between 1990 and 2008
(table 1.1).
While it seems almost certain that the target to halve
extreme income poverty by 2015 will be achieved
at the global level, projections regarding poverty
reduction inevitably depend on assumptions about
how fast economies might grow, and how that growth
will be distributed. these assumptions make a great
deal of difference. the World bank’s projection that
1 billion people will be living on less than $1.25 in
2015 is based on a set of predictions about changes in
inequality, demography, employment and the nature
of economic growth. Different assumptions produce
different predictions, such as the more optimistic 0.6
billion figure projected by chandy and Gertz (2011).
these issues are further discussed in chapter 6.
Non-income poverty targets
In terms of employment – the second mDG1 target
– there have been some positive developments,
although not always sufficient to provide adequate
jobs for a growing labour force. the proportion
of own-account and contributing family workers
in total employment, which is often a proxy for
vulnerable or precarious work, is declining only
slowly. according to un figures (un, 2012a) in SSa,
Southern asia and oceania, about 77% of people in
employment fall in this category, compared to 50%
in Eastern asia and 32% in latin america and the
caribbean (table 1.2). Women are more likely to
be engaged in vulnerable employment (in SSa, the
statistics are 85% for women and 69% for men), while
young people are often in low-opportunity familybased
employment. the gap in labour productivity
between developed and developing regions has
narrowed over the past 20 years, but it remains
substantial – with a ratio of 5 to 1 (un, 2012a).
the proportion of under-fives who are
underweight has decreased across all developing
regions since 1990, with a decline from 29% to 18%
in 2010. However, progress in SSa has been slower
than in other regions – with an average reduction
just below 25%, compared to an average decline
of 80% for Eastern asia and more than 60% in
Western asia, the caucasus and central asia, and
latin america and the caribbean (un, 2012a).
many regions have now attained levels of primary
education enrolment at between 90% and 95%. In
SSa, the average enrolment ratio is only 76%, but
it increased by over 22 percentage points between
1999 and 2010. While the target is for every child
to complete a full course of primary education, just
65% of enrolled children reached the last grade
of primary school in least Developed countries
(lDcs) (70% in SSa), compared with 89% in
developing countries overall.
poSt-2015: Global actIon For an IncluSIvE anD SuStaInablE FuturE
Half of all
countries will
meet the targets
on income poverty,
education, gender
parity in education
and clean water
and sanitation,
while a quarter to
a third will meet
the targets for
nutrition, child
mortality and
maternal
mortality.
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