Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

Table 6.1 Poverty projections
expected to continue to 15% in 2015 and 12.8% in
2020. 66 these trends already take into account the
impact of the global economic crisis. However, in a
more pessimistic scenario of slower growth, world
poverty would reach 18.5% in 2015 and 16.3% in
2020. For SSa, poverty fell from 57.6% in 1990 to
50.9% in 2005 and it is expected to drop to 32.8%
in 2020. again, a slower growth scenario would
hold back poverty reduction to 43.8% in 2015 and
39.9% in 2020. In order to reach the mDG1 targets,
poverty in SSa would need to be below 29% by 2015.
poverty in South asia is projected to fall from 40.3%
in 2005 to 19.4% in 2020 (the values for India are
fairly comparable). In East asia and the pacific
(Eap), poverty is expected to decline from 16.8%
in 2005 to 4% in 2020 (the estimates for china are
quite similar). obviously, these reductions will be
less pronounced in a more pessimistic scenario.
Finally, Hillebrand (2010a) makes a longer forecast
for poverty. the optimistic scenario suggests that
world poverty could fall from 21.3% in 2005 to about
13.3% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2050. Sub-Saharan africa
Chandy and Gertz World Bank
2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015 2020
East asia and pacific 16.8 7.4 2.7 16.8 .. 5.9 4.0
china 15.9 .. 0.3 15.9 .. 5.1 4.0
Europe and central asia 3.4 1.8 0.9 3.7 .. 1.7 1.2
latin america and caribbean 8.4 6.2 4.5 8.2 .. 5.0 4.3
middle East and north africa 3.8 2.5 1.9 3.6 .. 1.8 1.5
South asia 40.2 20.3 8.7 40.3 .. 22.8 19.4
India 41.6 .. 7.0 41.6 .. 23.6 20.3
Sub-Saharan africa 54.5 46.9 39.3 50.9 .. 38.0 32.8
World 25.7 15.8 9.9 25.2 .. 15.0 12.8
Source: chandy and Gertz, 2011; World bank, 2010
would reduce poverty from 50.9% in 2005 to 41.1% in
2015 and 11.7% in 2050. china and India would halve
their 2005 poverty headcount ratios by 2015 (to 7.6%
and 19.8% respectively) and nearly eradicate extreme
poverty by 2050. the world’s Gini coefficient would
decline from 0.684 to 0.648 respectively. In a slowgrowth
scenario world poverty would remain at
12% by 2050, with SSa experiencing an increase in
extreme poverty to 53.1% in 2050, while the world’s
Gini coefficient would decline marginally to 0.679.
While most studies project a continuing decline
in global poverty (even at the regional level), the
pace at which this will take place will depend on a
range of factors, including the level and distribution
of economic growth. It should also be noted that
the main discrepancies relate to the pace of poverty
reduction in India and, to a lesser extent, china. For
example, the chandy and Gertz (2011) projections
are more optimistic than those produced by the
World bank (2010), while those from Hillebrand
(2010a) are often in between those two. nonetheless,
the observation that global extreme poverty will
66 these are fairly similar to the figures presented in World bank (2012), used in chapter 1, but this earlier source also includes forecasts for china
and India.
poSt-2015: Global actIon For an IncluSIvE anD SuStaInablE FuturE
While most
studies project
a continuing
decline in global
poverty (even
at the regional
level), the pace
at which this
will take place
will depend on a
range of factors,
including the level
and distribution
of economic
growth.
93