Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

moreover, migration policy can shape migration.
For these reasons, most projections tend to assume
a continuation of recent trends (unDESa, 2012b).
assuming that the levels of migration observed
between 2000 and 2010 remain constant, more
developed regions are expected to receive an
additional 96 million migrants between 2010
and 2050 – an average of 2.4 million per year.
this increase should be sufficient to sustain
(net) population growth until 2040–2050, but a
population decline would then ensue. For less
developed countries, net migration will have little
impact on population growth (unDESa, 2011b).
this is an underlying assumption of the ‘medium
variant’ projections described earlier.
If there were no migration, however, the population
of the more developed regions would have declined
by 10% by 2050, while in less developed regions it
would be 2% higher (unDESa, 2011b). the zeromigration
scenario could mean that the old-age
dependency ratio in richer countries would increase
by more than expected.
In speculative terms, it is possible to imagine the
following five scenarios for international migration,
not all of which are mutually exclusive: (a) major
receiving regions remain the same (i.e. Europe,
north america and australia); (b) Europe becomes
less attractive as a receiving region because of
economic uncertainty or tighter migration control,
and immigration declines; (c) emerging economies
attract migrants away from traditional destinations;
(d) climate change forces some people to move and
settle elsewhere; and (e) social instability, conflict
or violence lead to greater forced or involuntary
migration (moD France, 2012).
Section summary
Demographic forecasts suggest that, despite a
decline in population growth rates, the size of the
world population will continue to expand in the
near future, which will place further pressures on
the environment. population growth in africa and
asia will mean that these regions account for 80%
of the world population by 2050. Declining fertility
rates and higher life expectancy will contribute to
population ageing, which could have significant
economic and social impacts in the more developed
regions and in parts of asia. projections suggest
that two-thirds of the world’s population will
live in urban areas by 2050, which could create
opportunities but also pose challenges, especially in
africa and asia. In fact, the prospect of half of this
urban population living in slums by 2030 highlights
the importance of tackling urban poverty.
In order to benefit from a demographic dividend,
countries with large young populations will need to
make very large investments (e.g. in social sectors
and economic infrastructure) in order to create
sufficient employment opportunities. International
migration trends are difficult to forecast, partly
because their size and direction are closely linked
to economic opportunities and migration policies
in potential destination countries. Growing
demographic pressures in the more developed
regions could encourage migration flows. migrants
could boost the working-age population of receiving
countries and ease the economic and social impacts
of an ageing population.
6.2 Economic trends
this section examines the potential evolution
of economic trends such as global GDp, trade
patterns, capital flows, employment and poverty.
although many studies focus mainly on advanced
and emerging economies, the section looks at the
implications for poorer countries, in particular at
whether their unprecedented levels of economic
growth since the mid-1990s are likely to be sustained.
6.2.1 Economic growth
the world economy is undergoing radical transformation.
In the 19th century, Europe and the uSa
poSt-2015: Global actIon For an IncluSIvE anD SuStaInablE FuturE
Youth migration
could potentially
help to slow
down population
ageing.
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