Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

CHApTER FOuR
4
The rise of Brazil,
China and India
as global powers
has been a key
feature of the last
decade. This trend
is set to continue
and, barring
catastrophic
events, it is likely
to be the defining
geopolitical
dynamic of the
current century.
58
THE CHAngIng glObAl
COmmunITy
Any post-2015 development consensus will
have to be agreed in a rapidly evolving
global political and economic context. the
period since 2000 has witnessed several
major changes in the global political
economy. this chapter discusses some of the most
significant transformations in the constellation of
actors, their interests, and the institutional setting(s)
within which they manage their interactions, and
draws some tentative conclusions about what
these processes may mean for global development
cooperation and for the Eu’s role in particular.
4.1 Changing global patterns
of power
the balance of global economic and political order,
which has for the last two centuries centred on
Western Europe and the uSa, is becoming more
complex. Figure 4.1 shows how relative shares of
global power may evolve over the next 50 years.
china and India are likely to enjoy a much greater
share of power in the international system, the
uSa and Europe much less. Such predictions need
to be treated with caution, since they are based
on contested ideas about what constitutes ‘power’
and assumptions about that cannot be tested.
nevertheless, whether or not the scenario depicted
in Figure 4.1 proves realistic, it is clear that the
balance of global power is shifting.
EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013
the rise of brazil, china and India as global powers
has been a key feature of the last decade. this trend
is set to continue and, barring catastrophic events
such as a global war and/or environmental collapse,
it is likely to be the defining geopolitical dynamic
of the current century. other countries such as
Indonesia, mexico, nigeria, Saudi arabia, South
africa and turkey are also building up significant
international influence, especially in their own
regions where their size and economic importance
have enhanced their role as ‘anchors’ in relation
to their neighbours and also their central role in
international partnerships (Stamm, 2004).
the ‘new’ prominence of these actors is a topic
of much debate among scholars, policy-makers,
pundits and in wider public discourse. are we
seeing the terminal ‘decline of the West’, or are
uSa and European military and economic power
still so dominant that it is too soon to speak of a
‘multipolar world’? Whatever the answer, it is clear
that major changes are taking place in the growing
number of countries that can exert global influence
or veto. the uSa, the countries of Western Europe,
australia, canada and Japan are still by some
distance the world’s wealthiest countries and they
form its strongest network of political, economic
and military alliances. However, their ability to use
hard or soft power to get others to do their bidding
is diminishing.