Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

CHApTER SIx
There will be
a need for a
differentiated
approach in order
to simultaneously
address the
challenges faced
by the poorest
countries and
countries that
require a
different type of
engagement.
94
become more concentrated in SSa appears to be
fairly robust, which would reinforce the original
mDG call for a special focus on africa.
moreover, while the majority of the world’s extreme
poor now live in mIcs, future trends are sensitive to
several factors – including national dynamics (e.g.
relating to population, average income, and poverty)
and updates to the income threshold for lIcs and
mIcs. Sumner (2012a) projects that the world’s poor
might be evenly distributed between lIcs and mIcs
by 2030 (according to the $2 poverty line). but since
some lIcs will probably graduate to mIc status in
the coming years, it is likely that the majority of the
poor will live in mIcs. 67 this is not to suggest that
the focus of the international community should be
on mIcs. there will be a need for a differentiated
approach in order to simultaneously address the
challenges faced by the poorest countries (many of
which are struggling to significantly reduce poverty
levels) and countries that require a different type of
engagement. In fact, while external support such
as oDa is likely to remain crucial for the poorest
countries, it will play only a minor role in advancing
human development in mIcs, given their greater
domestic and international financial resources.
Sumner (2012b) argues that in the near future, most
of the world’s poor will live in countries that have the
domestic scope to eradicate extreme poverty, while
external support for poverty reduction will remain
essential for lIcs. the future will certainly require a
more focused allocation and use of oDa to eradicate
poverty in the poorest countries, and a stronger
focus on domestic redistribution in fast-growing
developing countries. this essentially calls for a
greater focus on inclusiveness (and sustainability)
in a post-2015 development framework.
Section summary
there is broad agreement that economic growth
in less developed countries will be faster than in
richer countries. china and India in particular
67 Kharas and rogerson (2012) argue, however, that the bulk of poverty will revert to lIcs by 2025.
EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013
will account for a much larger share of world GDp.
moreover, a growing middle class in emerging
economies is likely to shape the dynamics of the
world economy. the volume of international
trade and capital flows is expected to increase,
suggesting a more interdependent global economy,
although the geographical patterns are likely to
change significantly, with a particularly strong
increase in South–South economic relations. Global
employment prospects are quite bleak, partly due
to the long-term impact of the global economic
crisis, the effects of globalisation on wage levels, and
technological advances. there are some discrepancies
in projected poverty trends. Emerging economies are
expected to reduce poverty significantly (especially
china and India, even if the magnitudes are rather
uncertain), but current trends suggest that poverty
in SSa is likely to remain high. this suggests that a
successor to the mDGs should pay special attention
to the challenges faced by the poorest countries.
In particular, they will need support to diversify
their economies, enhance productive capacities and
promote structural transformation.
Given the recent slowdown of economic growth in
emerging economies – especially brazil, china and
India – the key question is whether this phenomenon
is cyclical or structural. If the deceleration is linked
to ageing populations, lower potential output
or a so-called ‘middle-income trap’, then the
future prospects of the poorest countries may be
significantly reduced. this would further support
the need for a global development agreement.
6.3 Environmental trends
this section examines the main environmental
trends particularly in relation to climate change
and the scarcity of natural resources, which may
affect the sustainability of current demographic
and economic trends.