Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

CHApTER SIx
It is estimated
that global food
production will
have to increase
by 70% by 2050
in order to meet
growing demand,
with cereal
production
increasing by
around 50% and
meat production
by 75%.
96
It is estimated that global food production (i.e.
excluding biofuels) will have to increase by 70%
by 2050 in order to meet growing demand, with
cereal production increasing by around 50% and
meat production by 75% (Fao, 2009). these trends
require a significant increase in yields and/or
expansion of agricultural land (i.e. arable land and
pastures), which global warming could impede.
Such large-scale increases would not be necessary
if significant measures were taken to reduce
waste. a recent study suggests that one third of
food produced for human consumption is lost or
wasted globally – in Europe and north america,
individual consumers waste on average 95–115
kg/year compared with 6–11 kg/year in SSa and
Southeast asia (Gustavsson et al., 2011).
the fast-growing middle class in emerging
economies will lead to significant changes in
consumption patterns, including a shift towards a
more meat-intensive diet. although meat represents
a small share of the global human diet, its production
is extremely resource-intensive, notably in terms
of land and water, and significantly contributes
to co2 emissions. For instance, livestock
production accounts for 70% of agricultural land,
while overgrazing plays an important role in
land degradation (Steinfeld et al., 2006). Hence, a
stronger demand for meat would have significant
economic and environmental implications.
moreover, a rapid expansion of biofuel production,
such as ethanol, could seriously undermine food
security in the poorest countries, as competing uses
of land for the production of food and renewable
energy intensify (ErD, 2012). Even if crop yields
and animal productivity increase, the impact of
climate change on agricultural yields could more
than offset potential technological improvements.
moreover, the scope for increasing yields through
the use of phosphorus-rich fertilisers may not be
infinite. there have been growing concerns about
the depletion of phosphorus stocks, although
projections vary considerably (HlpE, 2011).
EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013
6.3.3 Water
by 2050, global water demand is projected to double,
owing to higher demand for industry, domestic use
and the need to maintain ‘environmental flows’,
such as for agriculture (Foresight, 2011). the
oEcD (2012) estimates that global demand for
water will increase by over 50% by 2050 – due to
mounting demand from manufacturing (400%),
thermal electricity generation (140%) and domestic
use (130%). this leaves little scope to increase
irrigation for food production. more water efficient
technologies should help, and the growing demand
for water could also be addressed via pricing and
better management of waste. limiting waste in
other sectors such as food production, which is a
water-intensive activity, would also help to limit
the rise in water consumption.
While there has been progress in the mDG7
target to increase sustainable access to clean
drinking water and basic sanitation, poor water
quality remains the largest cause of global health
problems (unEp, 2012b). moreover, dealing
with water scarcity and pollution arising from
population growth and climate change can have
significant costs, for instance desalination and
addressing nitrate concentrations. over 40% of
the global population is expected to live in river
basins experiencing severe water stress, especially
in africa and asia (oEcD, 2012). Groundwater
depletion and nutrient pollution already threaten
agriculture and urban water supply. In addition,
fish stocks are being depleted at an unprecedented
rate, mainly due to commercial fisheries and
overfishing (unEp, 2012b).
6.3.4 Biodiversity
biodiversity plays an important role in reducing
poverty. the loss of populations (e.g. plants,
animals), species and habitats tends to affect poor
people directly, as they often rely on local ecosystems
and live in places that are most vulnerable to
ecological changes (unEp, 2007). biodiversity