Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

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CHApTER EIgHT Volatility in global commodities prices and weak institutional capacity to manage them has contributed to LDCs’ vulnerability. 150 has provided a somewhat more favourable context for growth for exporters, it nevertheless raises longterm concerns for the development of lIcs and lDcs. limited trade and investment diversification in lDcs have acted as the main transmission channel for the global economic crisis. 8.4.2 Economic vulnerability due to dependence on commodities many lDcs remain dependent on commodities. there are historical precedents of countries such as canada, the uSa and some of the nordic countries which successfully used natural resource endowments and primary commodity exports to fuel their economic development. However, volatility in global commodities prices and weak institutional capacity to manage them has contributed to lDcs’ vulnerability to their dependence on commodities (maizels, 1994). Figure 8.2 highlights the share of primary commodities in overall exports, and shows the degree to which lDcs’ exports are concentrated in just a few primary commodities. Such levels of concentration accentuate their economic vulnerability to changes in global commodities prices (Sachs and Warner, 2001). For instance, in the 1980s and 1990s large commodity price cycles became more frequent, shorter and broader. there was also a collapse of real commodity prices in the early 1980s, following the boom triggered by the 1973–74 oil crisis and the subsequent period of very high price volatility throughout the 1970s (Erten and ocampo, 2012). these deteriorating terms of trade for primary commodities continued throughout the 1980s and the 1990s and had a devastating impact on development in many low-income commoditydependent countries, with many enduring 20 years of severe economic and debt crises. the early 2000s saw a significant upturn in primary commodity prices (see Figure 8.3). after two decades 102 authors’ calculation based on World Development Indicators (accessed october 2012). EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013 of low and sometimes dwindling prices, the nominal price of many primary commodities rose markedly from 2002, reaching an all-time high in mid-2008, just before the onset of the global financial crisis, which affected all commodity groups. the marked increase in nominal prices resulted in a sharp upturn in real commodity prices between 2000 and 2010. this led many observers to conclude that commodities had entered into a new price supercycle in the early 2000s (e.g. Kaplinsky, 2010). Extremely high volatility of commodity prices has been a defining feature of most recent trends. this is because, after experiencing almost free fall in the last quarter of 2008, several ‘high-profile’ commodities continued to experience large swings and had almost reached the pre-crisis peak level towards early 2011. commodity prices then slumped again in connection with the sharp slowdown of the global economy and the worsening eurozone crisis. moreover, emerging data on agricultural production suggest an imminent global shortage of food staples. another short-term boom–bust cycle of commodity prices may therefore already be in the making, the implications of which are of concern for commodity exporters and importers and must therefore be placed high on the international policy agenda (box 8.2). 8.4.3 Lack of integration into the global services market Services are one of the most dynamic and rapidly growing sectors in many lIcs. the service sectors are vital components of economic growth and transformation because they facilitate transactions and increase productivity (Hoekman and mattoo, 2008). In many lIcs it is the informal economy, which largely constitutes services, that absorbs labour moving out of rural areas. the functioning of the service sector therefore has important implications for the overall economy. but while services value-added accounted for over 40% on average of lIcs’ GDp during the period 1990–
Figure 8.2 Share of primary commodities in exports, by country groups Primary commodity dependence thoughout the world (2008-200 average) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Developed economies Developing economies Source: UNCTAD, 2011 Primary commodity export as % of merchandise exports 3 main primary commodities export as % of merchandise exports Transition economies LDCs 3 main primary commodities export as % of commodity exports Comparaison of primary commodity dependence in developing countries (breakdown by continent, 2008-2009 average) Primary commodity export as % of merchandise exports Africa America Asia Oceania Source: UNCTAD, 2011 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3 main primary commodities export as % of merchandise exports 3 main primary commodities export as % of commodity exports poSt-2015: Global actIon For an IncluSIvE anD SuStaInablE FuturE Figure 8.2 highlights the share of primary commodities in overall exports, and shows the degree to which LDCs’ exports are concentrated in just a few primary commodities. Such levels of concentration accentuate their economic vulnerability. 151
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EUROPEAN REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT 2013
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MOBILISING EUROPEAN RESEARCH FOR DE
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FOREWORD The development road we ha
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ACknOWlEDgEmEnT The European report
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TAblE OF COnTEnTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT V
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CHAPTER 9. PEOPLE: LABOUR MIGRATION
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Figure 5.2 Evolution of depth of po
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EITI Extractive Industries transpar
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PSG peace-building and state-buildi
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mainly countries in Europe, north a
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ExEcutivE Summary poSt-2015: Global
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ExECuTIvE SummARy poSt-2015: Global
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poSt-2015: Global actIon For an Inc
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THE DEPLOYMENT OF A BROAD RANGE OF
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introduction poSt-2015: Global actI
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2. The case for global collective a
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upon in order to promote a developm
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to achieve inclusive and sustainabl
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contribute to a global framework fo
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Part i. KEEPing thE PromiSE of thE
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mortality, and clean water and sani
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Table 1.2 Non-income MDGs, 1990-201
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Several regions significantly reduc
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Figure 1.1 Sectoral allocation of b
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of tailored objectives that are ins
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policy discourse. In particular, th
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processes and implementation arrang
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NEPAL RWANDA COTE D’IVOIRE PERU E
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• Nepal after over 200 years as a
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Box 2.3 Côte d’Ivoire’s MDG ac
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Declaration and the mDGs, and were
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drive or obstruct poverty-reduction
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Driven by political survival and co
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oader political processes in which
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incentive structures within which e
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partners: their capacities as donor
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Box 2.9 Fragility - Country case ex
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towards the achievement of the mDGs
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3.2 The EU’s role in advancing th
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at the 2010 mDG Summit, un member s
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adopted by individual governments,
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discussions on pcD are not based on
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Part ii. thE changing contExt for a
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Figure 4.1 Changing global power 20
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crops (ErD, 2012). at the same time
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egimes, and donor-driven aid condit
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for an Eu position to be agreed ahe
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of people living in extreme income
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the mDGs needs to concentrate on th
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deprivation, whether directly or th
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has been declining since the early
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vulnerability (ErD 2012). this repo
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a set of global development goals i
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need to focus on eradicating existi
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27.5 25 22.5 20 17.5 15 12.5 10 7.5
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105 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
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due to the so-called arab Spring in
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moreover, migration policy can shap
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the Eu and 9% for the uSa. these sh
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accumulation patterns (from 35% of
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Table 6.1 Poverty projections expec
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6.3.1 Atmosphere and global warming
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supports ecosystem services that pr
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Page 141 and 142: ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT NEUT
Page 143 and 144: Part iii. drivErS of thE global Par
Page 145 and 146: Current USD Billions Current USD Bi
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Page 149 and 150: lmIcs and lIcs (oEcD, 2011b). Figur
Page 151 and 152: Box 7.1 Efforts to increase tax rev
Page 153 and 154: While SSc is not new, it has receiv
Page 155 and 156: India (de Jesus, 2012). there has b
Page 157 and 158: levels of formal education. third,
Page 159 and 160: While the mobilisation of funds fro
Page 161 and 162: Box 7.4 EU blending facilities Sinc
Page 163 and 164: Box 7.5 The toolbox of innovative f
Page 165 and 166: Figure 7.8 Net capital flows to dev
Page 167 and 168: which are many in developed countri
Page 169 and 170: and financial inclusion (Deuchert a
Page 171 and 172: Box 7.8 Implications for post-2015
Page 173 and 174: a means to reach development goals
Page 175 and 176: PREDICTABILITY ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENC
Page 177 and 178: this chapter first looks at some of
Page 179 and 180: social development, largely fuelled
Page 181 and 182: Box 8.1 Joining the flying geese Ka
Page 183 and 184: these structural shifts in the driv
Page 185 and 186: traditional donors and investors, c
Page 187: 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Sou
Page 191 and 192: Box 8.2 Political economy of commod
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Page 207 and 208: the role for trade and investment p
Page 209 and 210: labour migration produces remittanc
Page 211 and 212: the 2008 global financial crisis le
Page 213 and 214: Macro-economic impact International
Page 215 and 216: Social impact and psychological wel
Page 217 and 218: labour during that period. this pro
Page 219 and 220: Millions 10.4 4 N 3 2 1 0 Mexico-US
Page 221 and 222: migration programmes (tmps) are usu
Page 223 and 224: date, four mobility partnerships ha
Page 225 and 226: labour organization (Ilo) refers to
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Page 229 and 230: 9.5.2 Mode IV in the WTO the Wto’
Page 231 and 232: 9.6.2 What a post-2015 framework sh
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Page 235 and 236: ‘how’). this chapter also consi
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tackling global challenges. While s
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10.3.1 Poverty eradication as part
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Box 10.1 Economic and social inclus
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Box 10.2 Youth Employment About 85%
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International development partners
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at the multilateral level, the link
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• South-South Cooperation resourc
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information and evaluation initiati
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for consultative processes to take
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e added later. Equally it would be
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- such as their size and geographic
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(com, 2011). the aid-effectiveness
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Box 10.5 Areas for EU support: Reco
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there will need to be a continuing
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unrISD (2010) Combating Poverty and
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moore, m. (2011) ‘The Governance
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Chapter 4 birdsall, n. (2012) ‘Th
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Kharas, H. and rogerson, a. (2012)
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Kharas, H. and rogerson, a. (2012)
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cobham, a. (2012) ‘tax Havens and
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lall, r. (2011) ‘reforming Global
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unDp (2012) ‘What Is South-South
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Fine, b. (2009) ‘neoliberalism in
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Sindzingre, a. (2009) ‘The impact
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chanda, r. (2004) Movement and Pres
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Kouadio, E.K., ouattara, Y. and Sou
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un-InStraW and SaIIa (2007) Gender,
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Winters, a. and martins, p. (2004)
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Goals and Targets (from the Millenn
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Goals and Targets (from the Millenn
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conflict assessment, which also del
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the case study report suggests that
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in rwanda compared to an average of
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large educated class. Immigration w
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administration, with greater autono
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example, in low increases in tax ef
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AnnEx 3 - CORE pRInCIplES FOR InvES
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MOBILISING EUROPEAN RESEARCH FOR DE
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Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

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