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Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

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CHApTER SIx<br />

ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHY<br />

ENVIRONMENT<br />

102<br />

Table 6.2 Three scenarios<br />

PESSIMISTIC<br />

Population ageing accelerates in industrialised <strong>an</strong>d emerging<br />

economies (partly due to restrictions on international migration),<br />

creating a social <strong>an</strong>d economic crisis.<br />

Unm<strong>an</strong>ageable urb<strong>an</strong>isation growth has<br />

large economic <strong>an</strong>d environmental impacts.<br />

slows with a considerable<br />

impact on the world economy<br />

(especially <strong>for</strong> poor countries).<br />

International trade <strong>an</strong>d capital<br />

flows l<strong>an</strong>guish due to economic<br />

<strong>an</strong>d political uncertainty.<br />

The employment crisis worsens, contributing to a low-growth vicious<br />

cycle. <strong>Global</strong> poverty stagnates, but increases in SSA. Growing<br />

inequality increases signific<strong>an</strong>tly, leading to social unrest.<br />

<strong>Global</strong> temperature continues to increase, causing irreversible<br />

environmental <strong>an</strong>d economic damages. Chronic resource scarcity<br />

(e.g. water <strong>an</strong>d food insecurity) leads to internal violence <strong>an</strong>d<br />

regional conflicts. Volatile commodity prices undermine global<br />

economic per<strong>for</strong>m<strong>an</strong>ce.<br />

EuropE<strong>an</strong> rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013<br />

WORLD<br />

POPULATION<br />

GROWS<br />

relentlessly, causing irreversible<br />

impacts on the environment.<br />

INTERNATIONAL<br />

TRADE LANGUISHES<br />

GDP CHINA<br />

GDP INDIA<br />

1950 1990 2010 2030

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