Post 2015: Global Action for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

CHApTER SIx
The USA, EU and
Japanese share
of world GDP
will shrink, while
China’s – and to
a lesser extent,
India’s – will rise
significantly.
88
Percentage of total, 1990 $ at PPP
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
became the dominant economic powers, a position
that was consolidated from the end of World War II
until the late 1970s. Since the 1980s, however, they
have lost ground, while the rise of other economies,
especially china’s, is likely to shape economic
relations in the coming years.
the projected size of the world economy depends
on assumptions about GDp growth rates, even
when the same population forecasts are used. For
example, mold (2010) projects that the size of the
world economy will double by 2030, the oEcD
(2012) projects that it will nearly quadruple by
2050, and Hillebrand (2010a) suggests it will be two
to four times larger by 2050 than it was in 2005,
depending on different policy scenarios.
Despite this considerable variation, some
trends appear to be fairly robust. For instance,
Figure 6.5 A history of world GDP
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1900 1913 1940 1970 2008
France
United States
Japan
Source: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen (2010), available at: www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls
EuropEan rEport on DEvElopmEnt 2013
India
China (authors’ estimate as there is
no available data for 1940)
the European commission (2011) develops three
scenarios for the world economy, all suggesting a
dramatic shift in economic power. the uSa, Eu
and Japanese share of world GDp will shrink, while
china’s – and to a lesser extent, India’s – will rise
significantly. In the main scenario, china and India
will double their global GDp shares by 2030 – to
18% and 5% respectively – while the Eu will decline
from 29% to 22%, the uSa from 26% to 23%, and
Japan from 9% to 7%. by 2050, china will account
for 24% of world GDp, the uSa 18%, the Eu 15%
and India 9%. the alternative scenarios place
china’s share at between 23% and 28% of global
GDp by 2050. other studies have suggested even
more pronounced shifts. For instance, mold (2010)
estimates that china’s share will reach 28% of world
GDp by 2030, Subramanian (2011) forecasts 23% for
china (and 12% for the uSa) by 2030, and Fouré et
al. (2012) project 33% for china by 2050, 12% for