I527-290 ESRIF Final Report (WEB).indd - European Commission

might be low due to the overall optimistic global environment and development of global capabilities – over (M) and
(N) in between to (W), where the comparable demand might be much higher as the global environment is much more
confl ict laden.
ESRIF SCENARIO POTENTIAL IMPACT ON CRISIS MANAGEMENT
(G) GLOBAL
GOVERNANCE
(M) MULTI-POLAR
REALISM
(W) THE WEST
BETWEEN THREAT AND
ATTRACTION
(N) NEW WELFARE FOR
ALL
Table 2: Long Term Scenarios in light of Crisis Management
Major crisis interventions take place worldwide in a coordinated, eff ective and effi cient
way – novel and far reaching Crisis Management capabilities tackle the challenges of
information overfl ow. A globalisation of Crisis Management would have consequences
for European and national capabilities (principle of subsidiarity, role of federalism etc.).
Humanitarian or natural disasters could be abused as a “justifi cation” for interests-driven military
interventions worldwide. Imaginable consequences for Crisis Management policies could be
A militarisation of Crisis Management
A redundancy of civil protection capabilities,
An increasing rivalry between military and civil protection forces, in particular regarding
resources and political support.
Public Crisis Management capabilities and procedures are predominantly limited to
national and, to a lesser extent, European level. Limited budgets and constantly growing
public debts attract the outsourcing of these capabilities. Private organisations are
preparing to fi ll the gap – and are competing against the remaining public agencies.
“Blackwaterisation” of Crisis Management would force major shifts in the current
aid paradigms which are currently based on national and private engagement. A drastic
change in the perception of the NGO is also required.t
Future Crisis Management capabilities have been established, with a sound based
mixture of national, European and global responsibilities. The thriving economy could
prepare the ground for a tendency to organise civil protection in novel public-private
partnerships (PPP), which could lead to not considered possible “innovation” in Crisis
Management.
4.3 Required capabilities, gaps and derived research
The fi ndings on Crisis Management do not claim to be comprehensive or exhaustive. By nature they represent a snapshot
of an ongoing process rather than a fi nal result. Further continuous investigations are necessary in particular to elaborate
the diff erences in national capabilities and to take technological, sociological and management theoretical improvements
into account.
Withstanding a risk that materialises in a crisis situation incorporates challenges of a diff erent nature. In dealing with the
challenges certain capabilities need to be present. Any defi ciencies in this set of capabilities require investigations and research
in order to close the gap.
Crisis Management depends on the type of crisis only in the way diff erent tools are used. The activity principles turned out to
be the same for all crisis situations. Most capabilities are even similar in all mission phases and thus lead to a large category of
common need capabilities. Therefore, the elaborated fi ndings of WG4 with some 70 topics of diff erent range and granularity
were clustered along major capability areas avoiding an unbalanced situation with regard to specifi c scenarios and refl ecting
more the generic nature of Crisis Management.
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