I527-290 ESRIF Final Report (WEB).indd - European Commission

Global economy
(including eff ects
of technological
development)
EU’s wider
neighbourhood
(including eff ects of
climate change)
Social
cohesion
in EU
’immigrant’population
’indigenous’population
Political cohesion
of EU
Acceptability of
security measures
Public/private
roles in the civil
security sector
Long boom due
to free trade and
massive investment
in Climate change
mitigation/
adaptation
Positive social and
environmental
developments; little
migration push
Generally thriving
off the boom,
little tendency to
radicalisation
Some traditional
industrial regions hit
hard by competition
with tendencies to
racist radicalisation
Diff erent abilities to
tap into the global
economic boom
lead to strains
More ’Chinese’
values lead to
higher acceptance
of discipline and
invasion of privacy
Bigger role for
private actors
including voluntary
organisations –
citizens for security
Table 2. ESRIF’s context scenarios: A systematic comparison
5.5 Knowledge and competence gaps
Weak due to
protectionism and
inability to deal with
Climate change
Environmental
degradation
and struggle for
resources lead to
armed confl ict and
Medium growth rate,
rapid innovation and
industrial pattern
change
Positive political and
social development;
considerable
environmental
problems lead to
mass migration strong migration push
Strong tendencies
to violent
radicalisation in both
groups leading to
dangerous confl icts
Strong to cope with
external and social
pressure
Very high due to
external and internal
threats
Traditional roles with
big primes catering
to ’military’ style
demands
Eff ective social
policies based on
innovative public/
private partnerships
lead to inclusive
welfare
Medium growth rate,
restructuring within
established industrial
pattern
Armed confl icts
and environmental
degradation lead to
mass migration
Major problems
linked to Global
struggle allegiances
Small problems
Strong Varying enthusiasm
with respect to
Global struggle lead
to strains.
Low level of security
threat and generally
high standards in
civil rights put strict
limits
Innovative use of
private sector, in
particular SME’s
Very high due to
external and internal
threats
Considerable
outsourcing to big
private fi rms
This section presents the substantive conclusions drawn from WG5 working together with other WGs and then, based on this,
the knowledge and competence gaps, which subsequently will lead us to research needs and priorities.
Consequence vs. risk: a long-term perspective on security problems
A fi rst result of the work together with other WGs with the context scenarios is that the scope of societal risk grows over time.
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