I527-290 ESRIF Final Report (WEB).indd - European Commission

266
Weight / Cost
Estimate (small2-
5€; med 10-25€;
large 30-40€)
Cluster Timeline
(short-midlong-term)
From WG What? Why? How? Key link
elements
running
No.
y
investments >
decision-making
in the face of
insecurity >
human
factors/user
interface issues
y )
current insecurities likely to prevail in the new key capabilities bridging extant ones; human
future, to the present day investment
factors/user interface issues;
decisions).
3.14;
small
short term
2
1) Foster shared understanding of long-term security
issues in European policy communities (content),
2) A shared conceptual framework for security policy writ
large among European decision-making and decisionsupporting
communities. Embed sound foresight and risk
assessment practices in decisionmaking.
Lack of ability to deal with future deep
uncertainty; need for translating strategic
insights/concepts into R&D or investment
priorities. No mature security specific
communities available; short term focus of
policymakers. Lack of common vision of future
threats to security interests; lack of
understanding.
45 5 Handling high-quality
societal foresight debate on
security
ESRIF FINAL REPORT - ANNEX II
> embedding
foresight in
decision-making
on security
policies >
comparative
studies on
national and
sectoral
foresight
communities;
NoE:s, > holistic
approach to
security
3)Develop strategies for sound foresight and risk
assessment practices to affect public perceptions of
insecurity: processes (process),
4) Improve understanding the interdependencies
between the internal and the external dimensions of
security and defence issues
med
short term
2
36;
> scenario
methods > ict
tools for creative
collaboration >
creativity
enhancing
toolsfor
foresight
Advancement of scenario methodology as an essential
tool for enabling and organising creativity.
Development of cooperative ICT tools to facilitate
deliberation and creative collaboration within distributed
teams.
Development of creativity-enhancing tools
Potential of ICT not yet exploited, e.g. virtual
reality tools, etc. More sophisticated
methodologies are needed to explore future
worlds in a systematic manner.
46 5 Enhancing creative
capabilities in foresight
3.6;
large
short term
1
> human and
societal
resilience
(citizens’ ability
Development of an operational concept of social
resilience.
Improve understanding on ways of affecting ‘root
causes’ of insecurity (e.g. violent radicalisation).
The impacts of interventions in
interdependent sets of root causes can be
captured at a very abstract and general level
only. Major threats associated with emerging
47 5 Understanding human
behaviour (individual and
group) in the context of
security