I527-290 ESRIF Final Report (WEB).indd - European Commission

medical counter-measures, decontamination, and protection. It is also essential to consider how European societies can
overcome an attack involving CBRN weapons and still sustain social cohesion and stability.
It is relatively unlikely that a non-EU state will attack the EU using CBRN weapons. However, it should be noted that, due to dualuse
technological developments, non-EU states that have engaged in off ensive CBRN programs in the past will increasingly
possess a stand-by CBRN capability.
6.2.2 CBRN security deployment in the mid- to long-term perspectives (20 years)
This part of the summary analyses key technological development trends that will contribute to the development and
deployment of CBRN weapons and materials in the mid- to long-term perspectives, defi ned as 20 years into the future.
6.2.2.1 Developments in chemical dual-use technology
The ever-increasing range of toxic chemicals and the new processes that enable the synthesis of such chemicals on scales of a
few tens of kilograms make it easier to use chemical substances off ensively. New methods of manufacture will have an impact
on the ability to produce either classical warfare chemicals or other toxic chemicals. Many parts of the chemical industry
around the world operate with multipurpose batch facilities, which can readily switch from one product to another. This
versatility provides the means to produce a wide variety of chemicals on which the world depends to sustain a modern way of
life, but it could also be misdirected to produce chemical warfare agents. In the future, technology now considered advanced
will become available to a wider community, including those that have malignant purposes.
A wide range of new reactor technologies including phase-transfer catalysis, microwave reactors, and electrochemistry are
worth mentioning. Some of these process technologies can be scaled down to sizes that could be operated inconspicuously
outside a normal chemical production setting. The potential off ensive use seems obvious, although some diffi culties in
producing chemical weapon agents in a “backyard” setting still exist.
Small reactors fabricated by technology adapted from the micro-electronics industry can be surprisingly productive when
operated continuously. With technologies such as microreactors becoming more widely used in industry, scaling up benchtop
production processes is much easier and faster. Biotechnology will steadily increase in importance, especially the
manufacture of (complex) organic chemicals. Enzyme-catalyzed reactions as well as reactions in more complex biological
media are alternatives to more conventional syntheses.
As concerning means of delivery and dispersal, various technological developments can have implications for more effi cient
delivery of chemical weapons. Nanotechnology, for example, can be used in many ways, one being the use of particles as carriers
of toxic agents, enabling aerosols to be transported easily through protective clothing and/or deep into lungs or skin.
The widespread use of unmanned aerial or ground vehicles indicates the coming of age of remotely piloted vehicle technology.
While much of the technology associated with cruise missiles is controlled, the sophistication of what is available commercially
is growing rapidly and therefore could get into the hands of terrorists in the future.
Another factor is the development of the binary weapon in which the agent is stored as two precursor chemicals that only
need to be combined to form the fi nal lethal product. This reduces the risk that a terrorist must face in the storage and
transport of their weapons. It also reduces the threat of accidental exposure upon dispersion of the agent. If the chemical
device is engineered correctly, with some sort of time delay, the terrorist could be long gone before the lethal agent is made.
6.2.2.2 Developments in biological dual-use technology
The Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BTWC) entered into force in 1975. The disclosure of off ensive weapons programs
after it entered into force, consisting of highly advanced molecular biology research creating agents with new characteristics
for off ensive purposes, points to the potential for further misuse of biotechnology.
Today many biotechnological techniques are widely used and spread throughout the scientifi c community. Although the
methodology for modifying most bacteria and viruses to change their characteristics is quite easy depending on which organism
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