I527-290 ESRIF Final Report (WEB).indd - European Commission

Weight / Cost
Estimate (small2-
5€; med 10-25€;
large 30-40€)
Cluster Timeline
(short-midlong-term)
From WG What? Why? How? Key link
elements
running
No.
y
to cope with
insecurities and
crises) >
malevolent use
of emerging
technology >
human- system
integration >
root causes of
insecurity
Investigate malevolent uses of emerging technologies
from an inter-disciplinary perspective
Understand Human-System Integration aspects of the
operation of security solutions.
y y j g g
technologies reside in the – often unexpected -
use that can be made of them.
med
short term
2
3.1;
3.1; 3.5; 3.11;
3.14
Map, through multidiscipline approaches, relevant
potential pathways to CBRN terrorism (including
radicalisation mechanisms in a CBRN context) and their
unique and specific signatures, sensitive to group
dynamics and technological abilities
Through cautious awareness raising-dialogue gain
support from civil society, law enforcement, academia etc
to detect anomalies
Meta-analysis of the complex threat dilemma and
development of new, non-frequentist and nondeterministic
analysis methods
Methodology to derive the probability of successful
incidents. Input is from actor profiles, actor capabilities,
consequence prediction, probabilitics
Intelligent database development and analysis;
Objective/quantitative algorithms
Modelling capabilities for attack simulation and
intervention planning (in/out-door; urban, sub-urban,
rural, industrial, infrastructure
Ability to prioritize and perform technical assessment
within (inter)national networks
Better and more flexible coverage of emerging threats in
CBRN-related treaties; better defining general purpose
criteria, systems, and having more possibilities and
mandates for monitoring
Creating dual-use awareness
Design of toolbox for monitoring and verification of
implementation of (new) CBRN treaties
Develop alternatives to replace radioactive sources by
non-radioactive means
Before prevention or preparation strategies
can be applied, a complete and accurate
assessment of the CBRN threat is required.
Continuous assessments and foresight then
helps to ascertain the efficacy of prevention
strategies and future investments. An accurate
CBRN threat assessment is also important to
first responders and other crisis management
personnel for setting planning and training
agenda and can help prioritize research in this
critical security area as well.
48 6 CBRN integral threat
assessment:
Surveillance tools for
detection of offensive
capacity with emphasis on
emerging technologies with
dual-use potential; analyzing
actor intention;
Intelligent agent data-base
and sharing capabilities with
high level of standardization
using validated accepted
data;
Systematic identification of
vulnerable targets
med
short to long
term
2
3.2; 3.5; 3.6; 3.7;
The best defense against CBRN terrorist
threats, next to eliminating the cause, is to
prevent extremists from having the availability
of CBRN sources and knowledge.
International legally-binding treaties and
agreements on control of export of sensitive
technologies, materials and knowledge, along
with nationally implemented non-proliferation
measures can reduce the threat of CBRN by
various ways.
49 6 Prevention of CBRN incidents
by effective multinational
counterproliferative
organisational measures:
Increased CBRN-security of
infrastructure (including
knowledge, material, and
equipment) involving
industry, academia, research
institutes, and governmental
267