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The interlinkages between these knowledge and competence domains are outlined in Figure 1. The need to understand
consequence vs. risk orientation as a continuum of perspectives outlined above should be seen as a cross-cutting focus area
involving all the above domains.
5.6 Research needs and priorities
This section explains the research needs and priorities related to strategic foresight and risk analysis. These needs are based on
the knowledge and competence gaps identifi ed above and are discussed under the interrelated 6 sub-categories presented
in fi gure 1.
Understanding and modelling complex inter-dependencies.
Security problems typically have complex interdependencies, inducing big risks for unintended consequences. This needs to
be considered in decision-making.
Many approaches to modelling complex inter-dependencies exist but a lack of consolidation and knowledge accumulation
leads to a tendency of reinventing the wheel.
There is need for systematic evaluation of approaches leading to consolidation of methods to model complexity
and interdependencies between sectors and synergies between security measures incl. risks for counterproductive
effects.
A key aspect is the methods’ ability to support eff ective interfacing with decision-makers
and experts.
Systematic risk monitoring and assessment method.
There is limited ability to recognise ’weak signals’, either with respect to emerging risks or with respect to possible solutions/
technologies; to identify early on potential areas of confl ict and problems; as well as for dealing with them on the public
agenda. Progress can be made by improving
Monitoring and early warning of potential security problems and solutions (‘technology watch’)
The robustness of methods and tools for risk monitoring and assessment
The understanding of the use of intelligence in the operation of security solutions; and
This may be supported at a more technical level by development of multilingual semantic analysis
systems
Prioritising security investments.
Security analysis requires the simultaneous application of all the ‘current capabilities’ (i.e. tools for projecting both i) potential
uncertainty related to alternative futures and ii) current insecurities likely to prevail in the future, to the present day investment
decisions). This requires
Development of architecture (methods and approaches) for prioritising security investments
New key capabilities bridging extant ones
Human factors/user interface issues
Case-oriented empirical research on decision-making in the face of insecurity
ESRIF FINAL REPORT - PART 2 • Working Group: Foresight and Scenarios