I527-290 ESRIF Final Report (WEB).indd - European Commission

Demography Science and Technology
Migration Technological development
Urbanisation Diff erences in access to technology
Ageing population Information fl ow and sources
Diseases
Population growth
Proliferation of WMD
Social values and Identity
Economy Changing values
Economic globalisation
Economic growth (and turbulence)
Social cohesion
Emerging economic powers Governance and Order
Social and income inequalities Organised crime and illicit trade
Terrorism
Environment New confl icts
Climate change International power relations
Environmental degradation Global governance
Limited resources (natural and energy) Democratisation
Role of the state
Table 1 Nomenclature of key trends
The set of core studies were then mapped against these key trends. When some studies especially stressed a few trends more
than others (i.e. ’main trends’), such cases were identifi ed. Finally the trends identifi ed in ESRIF (cf. below) were mapped against
the other studies.
It turned out that most of the studies covered key trends in all of the 6 major headings. Emerging Systemic Risks did not stress
trends under Social values and Identity¸ nor did NATO Future World Scenarios. EU research and innovation policy diff ers from the
rest in that it did not mention trends under as many as three chapters: Demography, Environment or the Social Values and Identity.
(This may be explained by the more limited scope of this report compared to the others.) Although Shell global scenarios to 2025
is a broad study, it is notable that it did not stress Demography as a driving force. (However, it did include it as a background trend.)
The New Global Puzzle, DCDC Global Strategic Trends, Prospective géostratégique and the Mapping the Global Future stand out
by spanning a large set of key trends, ranging from 17 to 21. The rest of the studies typically span 7 to 11 key trends.
On a more detailed level, one can notice that a trend typically is covered in 4-7 studies. The most popular key trends are
Economic growth (and turbulence), Technological development, Global governance featuring in 9 diff erent studies. The key
trends Environmental degradation and Democratisation are the least common, each represented in only 3 studies.
5.3.2 Methodology
The studies were also studied from a methodological point of view. In particular they were assessed in terms of:
Level of references to textual sources
Level of outside participation
Level of references to textual sources
Most reports had a low or limited amount of references supporting substantive statements. The outstanding report in
this respect is The New Global Puzzle, where statements are almost always supported by a reference. Deutschland im
Jahr 2020 has a high level of references, mostly however to reports published by Deutsche Bank. Shell global scenarios
to 2025, Emerging Systemic Risks and Prospective Géostratégique supported many of their statements (judged to be
at a moderate level).
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