Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Chapter 5: Industry and transport
The 450 Scenario of WEO 2010 foresees EVs and PHEVs taking off more rapidly this
decade and reaching 39% of new sales by 2035, making a significant contribution to
emissions abatement, reflecting a major decarbonisation of the power sector (Figure 5.7).
Figure 5.7 Sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in the 450 Scenario
and CO 2 intensity of the power sector
PHEV sales
in 450 Scenario
EV sales
in 450 Scenario
CO2
intensity
in power generation
in Current Policies
Scenario (right axis)
70
60
50
40
30
Million
Grammes per kWh
700
600
500
400
300
CO2
intensity
in power generation
in 450 Scenario
(right axis)
20
200
10
100
0
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: IEA analysis based on IEA, 2010b.
Key point
In the 450 Scenario, EV and PHEV expand rapidly while electricity is decarbonised.
In the BLUE Map Scenario, which looks farther into the future, EV and PHEV sales are each
projected to reach about 50 million by 2050, with combined stocks of over 1 billion such
vehicles on the road in that year. In the BLUE EV Scenario, the stock of EVs and PHEVs is
even greater.
The evolution of energy use by fuel types to 2050 in the Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios,
with several variants, of ETP 2008 is shown in Figure 5.8. A mix of energy efficiency
improvements, modal shifts (especially in the BLUE Map/Shifts variants), use of biofuels
and deployment of EVs, would bring fossil fuel use down not only from Baseline levels by
2050, but even from current levels. This projection also integrates fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs)
fuelled by hydrogen from a variety of non-carbon sources.
Direct uses of solar energy in transport are currently purely symbolic, illustrated by solar
planes, boats and cars (see Photo 5.3, Photo 5.4 and Photo 5.5). Beyond the symbols,
direct solar contributions could be made by using PV systems to save fuel, thereby
reducing the consumption of fuel going towards the production of on-board electricity
for general purposes. One possible advantage would be to maintain some airconditioning
when the car is stationary under sunshine. On lighter vehicles, PV systems
can extend the range by 15 km, which in some cases could represent an entire extra
day’s use.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011